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Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Michael E. Porter, Jennifer F. Baron, Martin Rejler. The Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden (referred as “Highland Care” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Health, Organizational structure, Strategy execution.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden Case Study


Sweden's Highland District County Hospital, similar to a community hospital in the US, undertook a major restructuring to integrate care delivery for medical conditions served by the Department of Medicine. Each subspecialty within the Department would form a single, co-located unit with its own budget that encompassed both inpatient and outpatient care. This case examines the experience of the Highland Gastroenterology Unit, comparing the delivery model for inflammatory bowel disease in 2001 and 2009, before and after the reorganization. The case can be used to examine health care provider strategy, integrated care delivery, and quality measurement. The case also profiles Sweden's single-payer health care system, allowing for a discussion of national health systems and health policy.


Case Authors : Michael E. Porter, Jennifer F. Baron, Martin Rejler

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Health, Organizational structure, Strategy execution




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007556) -10007556 - -
Year 1 3448176 -6559380 3448176 0.9434 3252996
Year 2 3955916 -2603464 7404092 0.89 3520751
Year 3 3941746 1338282 11345838 0.8396 3309566
Year 4 3243456 4581738 14589294 0.7921 2569121
TOTAL 14589294 12652434


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2644878

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Highland Care shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Highland Care have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Highland Care often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Highland Care needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007556) -10007556 - -
Year 1 3448176 -6559380 3448176 0.8696 2998414
Year 2 3955916 -2603464 7404092 0.7561 2991241
Year 3 3941746 1338282 11345838 0.6575 2591762
Year 4 3243456 4581738 14589294 0.5718 1854456
TOTAL 10435873


The Net NPV after 4 years is 428317

(10435873 - 10007556 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10007556) -10007556 - -
Year 1 3448176 -6559380 3448176 0.8333 2873480
Year 2 3955916 -2603464 7404092 0.6944 2747164
Year 3 3941746 1338282 11345838 0.5787 2281103
Year 4 3243456 4581738 14589294 0.4823 1564167
TOTAL 9465914


The Net NPV after 4 years is -541642

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9465914 - 10007556 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Highland Care to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Highland Care has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Highland Care can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Highland Care, then the stock price of the Highland Care should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Highland Care should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Michael E. Porter, Jennifer F. Baron, Martin Rejler (2018), "Highland District County Hospital: Gastroenterology Care in Sweden Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.