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Scenario-Based Strategy Maps Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Scenario-Based Strategy Maps case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Scenario-Based Strategy Maps case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Frank Buytendijk, Toby Hatch, Pietro Micheli. The Scenario-Based Strategy Maps (referred as “Maps Scenario” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Scenario-Based Strategy Maps Case Study


Strategy maps are designed to help execute strategy and bring predictive qualities to key performance indicators by linking them according to perceived cause-and-effect relationships. However, in our experience strategy maps are often extrapolations of past performance and are seldom sufficiently linked to possible future states. In this article, we argue that scenario analysis could play an important role in the design of strategy maps, as it is an effective method to look at the future. Through the development of scenarios, organizations can think creatively about possible discontinuous future states and can prepare themselves for multiple plausible futures, not only the one they expect to happen. Therefore, scenario-based strategy maps could enable organizations to face strategic uncertainty in a more effective way and make them more sustainable in the longer term. This article highlights the strengths and weaknesses of strategy maps and scenario analysis, and outlines a method to develop scenario-based strategy maps both in theory and by presenting a significant example.


Case Authors : Frank Buytendijk, Toby Hatch, Pietro Micheli

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Scenario-Based Strategy Maps Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014786) -10014786 - -
Year 1 3463179 -6551607 3463179 0.9434 3267150
Year 2 3970042 -2581565 7433221 0.89 3533323
Year 3 3940293 1358728 11373514 0.8396 3308346
Year 4 3248816 4607544 14622330 0.7921 2573367
TOTAL 14622330 12682186


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2667400

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Maps Scenario shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Maps Scenario have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Scenario-Based Strategy Maps

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Maps Scenario often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Maps Scenario needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014786) -10014786 - -
Year 1 3463179 -6551607 3463179 0.8696 3011460
Year 2 3970042 -2581565 7433221 0.7561 3001922
Year 3 3940293 1358728 11373514 0.6575 2590807
Year 4 3248816 4607544 14622330 0.5718 1857521
TOTAL 10461710


The Net NPV after 4 years is 446924

(10461710 - 10014786 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014786) -10014786 - -
Year 1 3463179 -6551607 3463179 0.8333 2885983
Year 2 3970042 -2581565 7433221 0.6944 2756974
Year 3 3940293 1358728 11373514 0.5787 2280262
Year 4 3248816 4607544 14622330 0.4823 1566752
TOTAL 9489970


The Net NPV after 4 years is -524816

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489970 - 10014786 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Maps Scenario to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Maps Scenario has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Maps Scenario can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Maps Scenario, then the stock price of the Maps Scenario should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Maps Scenario should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Frank Buytendijk, Toby Hatch, Pietro Micheli (2018), "Scenario-Based Strategy Maps Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.