Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Alan Davis, Eric M. Olson. The Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business (referred as “Eleven Startup” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business Case Study

The topic of formulating and implementing competitive strategy is usually considered from the perspective of a large, well established, and often time multi-divisional corporation. Achieving a sustainable competitive advantage, however, is every bit or even more critical to the survival of smaller startup businesses. Although much research has been performed on how startup companies create value for their constituencies and on how they launch products, few attempts have been made to apply classical large-company strategy ideas to startups. In this paper we consider eleven distinct differences between how large, established firms and their smaller startup counterparts consider strategy initiatives with an eye to guiding entrepreneurs toward higher probabilities of success. The eleven differences are building on market strengths, size of market, relationship to resources, presence of constraints, visibility of and by competitors, investor expectations, shareA?holder/investor risk tolerance, process, portfolio management, triage, and time horizon for results.

Case Authors : Alan Davis, Eric M. Olson

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024505)	-10024505	-	-
Year 1	3455486	-6569019	3455486	0.9434	3259892
Year 2	3964168	-2604851	7419654	0.89	3528095
Year 3	3961460	1356609	11381114	0.8396	3326118
Year 4	3222813	4579422	14603927	0.7921	2552770
TOTAL			14603927		12666876

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2642371

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Eleven Startup shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Eleven Startup have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Eleven Startup often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Eleven Startup needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024505)	-10024505	-	-
Year 1	3455486	-6569019	3455486	0.8696	3004770
Year 2	3964168	-2604851	7419654	0.7561	2997481
Year 3	3961460	1356609	11381114	0.6575	2604724
Year 4	3222813	4579422	14603927	0.5718	1842654
TOTAL					10449629

The Net NPV after 4 years is 425124

(10449629 - 10024505 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024505)	-10024505	-	-
Year 1	3455486	-6569019	3455486	0.8333	2879572
Year 2	3964168	-2604851	7419654	0.6944	2752894
Year 3	3961460	1356609	11381114	0.5787	2292512
Year 4	3222813	4579422	14603927	0.4823	1554212
TOTAL					9479189

The Net NPV after 4 years is -545316

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479189 - 10024505 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Eleven Startup to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Eleven Startup has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Eleven Startup can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Eleven Startup, then the stock price of the Eleven Startup should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Eleven Startup should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business

References & Further Readings

Alan Davis, Eric M. Olson (2018), "Critical Competitive Strategy Issues Every Entrepreneur Should Consider Before Going into Business Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.