MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mark Jeffery, Joseph F. Norton, Derek Yung. The MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management (referred as “Mdcm Portfolio” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Operations management, Performance measurement, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management Case Study

"MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management" examines the steps involved in developing a portfolio of IT projects aligned with a company's strategic objectives. Specifically, the case describes a situation where a firm has launched a transformation strategy but has yet to develop a complementary IT strategy. Students must select the optimal portfolio of projects aligned with the strategic objectives and define the global project execution strategy. The projects have both risks and dependencies. U.S.-based MDCM, Inc. specializes in medical device contract manufacturing and assembly. For the past five years, MDCM had grown by making more than twenty acquisitions of companies based outside the United States. This growth strategy enabled MDCM to better match its services to its customers, who had become larger and more global. In MDCM (A), the CIO of MDCM needed to determine the company's IT strategy and objectives. In doing so, he needed to ensure that they were properly aligned with the company's overall strategy and the new organization developed under an initiative called Horizon 2000. In a lecture prior to the cases, students should be introduced to the framework of IT portfolio management and how it can help focus IT efforts. In MDCM (B), the CIO has performed an audit of MDCM's IT and found twelve projects that are potential investment candidates for the next three years. The challenge for the IT Portfolio Management team is to identify the priority and appropriate sequence of investments to be made. The case assumes that students have knowledge of corporate IT. More specifically, the case is targeted for those who are or plan to become executives who would manage IT strategy and IT investment decisions either directly or in an oversight role. This case is the second in a series; the first is the case "MDCM, Inc. (A): IT Strategy Synchronization."

Case Authors : Mark Jeffery, Joseph F. Norton, Derek Yung

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : IT, Operations management, Performance measurement, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10008753)	-10008753	-	-
Year 1	3450856	-6557897	3450856	0.9434	3255525
Year 2	3976409	-2581488	7427265	0.89	3538990
Year 3	3939930	1358442	11367195	0.8396	3308041
Year 4	3235861	4594303	14603056	0.7921	2563105
TOTAL			14603056		12665661

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2656908

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mdcm Portfolio have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mdcm Portfolio shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mdcm Portfolio often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mdcm Portfolio needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10008753)	-10008753	-	-
Year 1	3450856	-6557897	3450856	0.8696	3000744
Year 2	3976409	-2581488	7427265	0.7561	3006736
Year 3	3939930	1358442	11367195	0.6575	2590568
Year 4	3235861	4594303	14603056	0.5718	1850114
TOTAL					10448163

The Net NPV after 4 years is 439410

(10448163 - 10008753 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10008753)	-10008753	-	-
Year 1	3450856	-6557897	3450856	0.8333	2875713
Year 2	3976409	-2581488	7427265	0.6944	2761395
Year 3	3939930	1358442	11367195	0.5787	2280052
Year 4	3235861	4594303	14603056	0.4823	1560504
TOTAL					9477665

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531088

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9477665 - 10008753 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mdcm Portfolio to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mdcm Portfolio has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mdcm Portfolio can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mdcm Portfolio, then the stock price of the Mdcm Portfolio should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mdcm Portfolio should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management

References & Further Readings

Mark Jeffery, Joseph F. Norton, Derek Yung (2018), "MDCM, Inc. (B): Strategic IT Portfolio Management Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.