AmTran Technology Ltd. Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for AmTran Technology Ltd. case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. AmTran Technology Ltd. case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Willy Shih, Jyun-Cheng Wang, Karen Robinson. The AmTran Technology Ltd. (referred as “Amtran Wu” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Economics, Growth strategy, International business, IT, Leadership, Product development, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

Case Description of AmTran Technology Ltd. Case Study

To maximize their effectiveness, color cases should be printed in color.As an original design manufacturer (ODM) of television sets and leading supplier to Vizio, a market leader in the U.S. for LCD flat panel TVs, AmTran Technology Ltd. uses what founder Alpha Wu describes as a "WE" model in which western companies perform sales, marketing, and product definition work, while eastern companies in Asia like his perform the engineering and manufacturing work. Confronted with commoditization pressure, Wu is presented with the opportunity to license a major TV brand. Is this consistent with his model? The case explores the changes that have taken place in the consumer television receiver market and the challenges faced by leaders of the analog market like Sony. It is intended for use with the technical note, "Competency-destroying Technology Transitions: Why the Transition to Digital is Particularly Challenging," HBS No. 613-024.

Case Authors : Willy Shih, Jyun-Cheng Wang, Karen Robinson

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Economics, Growth strategy, International business, IT, Leadership, Product development, Supply chain

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for AmTran Technology Ltd. Case Study

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10008140) -10008140 - -
Year 1 3470989 -6537151 3470989 0.9434 3274518
Year 2 3972042 -2565109 7443031 0.89 3535103
Year 3 3958347 1393238 11401378 0.8396 3323504
Year 4 3224141 4617379 14625519 0.7921 2553822
TOTAL 14625519 12686947

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678807

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Amtran Wu have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Amtran Wu shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of AmTran Technology Ltd.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Amtran Wu often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Amtran Wu needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10008140) -10008140 - -
Year 1 3470989 -6537151 3470989 0.8696 3018251
Year 2 3972042 -2565109 7443031 0.7561 3003434
Year 3 3958347 1393238 11401378 0.6575 2602677
Year 4 3224141 4617379 14625519 0.5718 1843413
TOTAL 10467776

The Net NPV after 4 years is 459636

(10467776 - 10008140 )

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10008140) -10008140 - -
Year 1 3470989 -6537151 3470989 0.8333 2892491
Year 2 3972042 -2565109 7443031 0.6944 2758363
Year 3 3958347 1393238 11401378 0.5787 2290710
Year 4 3224141 4617379 14625519 0.4823 1554852
TOTAL 9496415

The Net NPV after 4 years is -511725

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9496415 - 10008140 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Amtran Wu to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Amtran Wu has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Amtran Wu can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Amtran Wu, then the stock price of the Amtran Wu should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Amtran Wu should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

References & Further Readings

Willy Shih, Jyun-Cheng Wang, Karen Robinson (2018), "AmTran Technology Ltd. Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.