Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ali Farhoomand, Mary Ho. The Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth (referred as “Dell 2005” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Developing employees, Financial management, Growth strategy, Marketing, Risk management, Sales, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth Case Study

In the spring of 2005, Dell, Inc., the world's largest personal computer maker, announced a new goal: to reach $80 billion in annual sales by 2009. The goal was fairly ambitious for Dell, which at the time had revenues of about $49 billion. In the second quarter of 2005, Dell significantly missed revenue expectations and lowered its outlook. Dell shares were down by about 28% from the end of 2004 to late December 2005, whereas those of its major competitor, Hewlett-Packard Co., had soared more than 36%. Given the dip in revenues, investors began to question whether Dell was still the high-flying growth company it once was. Could Dell get its revenue growth back on track to realize its bullish vision? Could the company capture the opportunities available outside the United States, where its presence was younger and its share smaller? As Dell expanded into new product markets, could it replicate past success with the direct model and find new drivers for growth?

Case Authors : Ali Farhoomand, Mary Ho

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Developing employees, Financial management, Growth strategy, Marketing, Risk management, Sales, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025235)	-10025235	-	-
Year 1	3451959	-6573276	3451959	0.9434	3256565
Year 2	3971086	-2602190	7423045	0.89	3534252
Year 3	3956694	1354504	11379739	0.8396	3322117
Year 4	3228302	4582806	14608041	0.7921	2557118
TOTAL			14608041		12670052

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2644817

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Dell 2005 have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Dell 2005 shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Dell 2005 often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Dell 2005 needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025235)	-10025235	-	-
Year 1	3451959	-6573276	3451959	0.8696	3001703
Year 2	3971086	-2602190	7423045	0.7561	3002712
Year 3	3956694	1354504	11379739	0.6575	2601591
Year 4	3228302	4582806	14608041	0.5718	1845792
TOTAL					10451798

The Net NPV after 4 years is 426563

(10451798 - 10025235 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025235)	-10025235	-	-
Year 1	3451959	-6573276	3451959	0.8333	2876633
Year 2	3971086	-2602190	7423045	0.6944	2757699
Year 3	3956694	1354504	11379739	0.5787	2289753
Year 4	3228302	4582806	14608041	0.4823	1556859
TOTAL					9480943

The Net NPV after 4 years is -544292

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9480943 - 10025235 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Dell 2005 to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Dell 2005 has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Dell 2005 can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Dell 2005, then the stock price of the Dell 2005 should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Dell 2005 should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth

References & Further Readings

Ali Farhoomand, Mary Ho (2018), "Dell: Overcoming Roadblocks to Growth Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.