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Shutout Solutions Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Shutout Solutions case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Shutout Solutions case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Edward Gamble, Peter Moroz, Stewart Thornhill. The Shutout Solutions (referred as “Shutout Fibre” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, International business, Marketing, Productivity, Project management, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Shutout Solutions Case Study


After working together on a university business plan, two entrepreneurs had worked for three years to develop their venture: Shutout Solutions Inc. Their startup venture was established in response to an issue familiar to most hockey players: notoriously smelly equipment. While their familiarity with hockey equipment helped them identify a specific problem, subsequent research had revealed a much broader issue: the need to clean products that were made of micro-fibre. Utilizing a technology that addressed the micro-fibre odour issue, they believed they had a five year opportunity window to develop and profit from the business before it was imitated or superseded. As the considered their options, they realized that they may have to choose to focus their resources on a single product line rather than continue to develop their current portfolio of a detergent, a body wash and a spray. They also questioned whether they were using the right channel - gyms and sporting goods stores - to reach their customers. The opportunity to pursue bulk institutional sales was also intriguing, though it would require a different sales, pricing and distribution strategy. And they also considered how they might respond to an offer to sell the company in its current form.


Case Authors : Edward Gamble, Peter Moroz, Stewart Thornhill

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, International business, Marketing, Productivity, Project management, Strategic planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Shutout Solutions Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019422) -10019422 - -
Year 1 3464366 -6555056 3464366 0.9434 3268270
Year 2 3970457 -2584599 7434823 0.89 3533693
Year 3 3947253 1362654 11382076 0.8396 3314190
Year 4 3240253 4602907 14622329 0.7921 2566584
TOTAL 14622329 12682736




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2663314

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Shutout Fibre shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Shutout Fibre have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Shutout Solutions

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Shutout Fibre often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Shutout Fibre needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019422) -10019422 - -
Year 1 3464366 -6555056 3464366 0.8696 3012492
Year 2 3970457 -2584599 7434823 0.7561 3002236
Year 3 3947253 1362654 11382076 0.6575 2595383
Year 4 3240253 4602907 14622329 0.5718 1852625
TOTAL 10462736


The Net NPV after 4 years is 443314

(10462736 - 10019422 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019422) -10019422 - -
Year 1 3464366 -6555056 3464366 0.8333 2886972
Year 2 3970457 -2584599 7434823 0.6944 2757262
Year 3 3947253 1362654 11382076 0.5787 2284290
Year 4 3240253 4602907 14622329 0.4823 1562622
TOTAL 9491145


The Net NPV after 4 years is -528277

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9491145 - 10019422 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Shutout Fibre to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Shutout Fibre has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Shutout Fibre can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Shutout Fibre, then the stock price of the Shutout Fibre should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Shutout Fibre should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Shutout Solutions

References & Further Readings

Edward Gamble, Peter Moroz, Stewart Thornhill (2018), "Shutout Solutions Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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