Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Martin Kupp, Olaf Ploetner. The Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company (referred as “Siemens Bt” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Competitive strategy, Marketing, Sales.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company Case Study

The case is set in November 2007. Matthias Rebellius, head of the business unit Fire Safety and Security Products, has to make a decision about the China strategy for the fire systems unit. Siemens has a very strong position globally in fire systems. Especially in developed markets, in the so-called M1 segments, Siemens is often number one or two. But worldwide and especially in China, the so-called M2 and M3 markets (Siemens terminology) had strong growth, but Siemens was not very well positioned in these segments of the market. The case begins with a short introduction outlining the situation. It then gives a detailed background on Siemens, especially the operating division Building Technologies (BT), and within BT the business unit Fire Safety & Security Products (FS). The case illustrates that the BT division was mainly active in mature, developed markets with slow growth rates. At the same time, there was an aggressive goal of achieving annual growth rates of more than five percent with an EBIT margin of 7 to 10%.

Case Authors : Martin Kupp, Olaf Ploetner

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Competitive strategy, Marketing, Sales

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014737)	-10014737	-	-
Year 1	3452220	-6562517	3452220	0.9434	3256811
Year 2	3963423	-2599094	7415643	0.89	3527432
Year 3	3958669	1359575	11374312	0.8396	3323775
Year 4	3247003	4606578	14621315	0.7921	2571931
TOTAL			14621315		12679949

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2665212

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Siemens Bt shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Siemens Bt have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Siemens Bt often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Siemens Bt needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014737)	-10014737	-	-
Year 1	3452220	-6562517	3452220	0.8696	3001930
Year 2	3963423	-2599094	7415643	0.7561	2996917
Year 3	3958669	1359575	11374312	0.6575	2602889
Year 4	3247003	4606578	14621315	0.5718	1856485
TOTAL					10458221

The Net NPV after 4 years is 443484

(10458221 - 10014737 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014737)	-10014737	-	-
Year 1	3452220	-6562517	3452220	0.8333	2876850
Year 2	3963423	-2599094	7415643	0.6944	2752377
Year 3	3958669	1359575	11374312	0.5787	2290896
Year 4	3247003	4606578	14621315	0.4823	1565877
TOTAL					9486001

The Net NPV after 4 years is -528736

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486001 - 10014737 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Siemens Bt to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Siemens Bt has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Siemens Bt can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Siemens Bt, then the stock price of the Siemens Bt should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Siemens Bt should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company

References & Further Readings

Martin Kupp, Olaf Ploetner (2018), "Siemens CerberusEco in China: Introducing low-frills products in a high-quality company Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.