Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Richard G. Hamermesh, Alisa Zalosh. The Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? (referred as “Givens Westlake” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Marketing, Operations management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? Case Study

Shelby Givens, a new MBA, is the general manager of Westlake Lanes, a near-bankrupt bowling alley that her grandfather founded decades earlier. Givens has been given one year to turn a profit; if the goal is not met Westlake will close. During the first few days on the job, Givens learns that the business is in worse shape financially than she - or the board - thought. She also finds that Westlake's employees exhibit minimal productivity. Givens tackles these two issues, creatively uncovering ways to reduce costs while building morale. After nine months, the business has its first profitable month in over two years. Yet Givens is worried it is too little, too late and begins to sketch a bolder long-term strategy based on pursuing one of two alternative new markets. Students are invited to consider whether the board should accept her potentially transformative proposal, maintain existing operations, or liquidate to pay off pressing loan responsibilities. The case includes a quantitative assignment for students.

Case Authors : Richard G. Hamermesh, Alisa Zalosh

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Marketing, Operations management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021764)	-10021764	-	-
Year 1	3445065	-6576699	3445065	0.9434	3250061
Year 2	3959749	-2616950	7404814	0.89	3524163
Year 3	3963769	1346819	11368583	0.8396	3328057
Year 4	3227635	4574454	14596218	0.7921	2556589
TOTAL			14596218		12658870

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2637106

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Givens Westlake shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Givens Westlake have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Givens Westlake often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Givens Westlake needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021764)	-10021764	-	-
Year 1	3445065	-6576699	3445065	0.8696	2995709
Year 2	3959749	-2616950	7404814	0.7561	2994139
Year 3	3963769	1346819	11368583	0.6575	2606242
Year 4	3227635	4574454	14596218	0.5718	1845411
TOTAL					10441501

The Net NPV after 4 years is 419737

(10441501 - 10021764 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021764)	-10021764	-	-
Year 1	3445065	-6576699	3445065	0.8333	2870888
Year 2	3959749	-2616950	7404814	0.6944	2749826
Year 3	3963769	1346819	11368583	0.5787	2293848
Year 4	3227635	4574454	14596218	0.4823	1556537
TOTAL					9471098

The Net NPV after 4 years is -550666

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9471098 - 10021764 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Givens Westlake to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Givens Westlake has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Givens Westlake can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Givens Westlake, then the stock price of the Givens Westlake should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Givens Westlake should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved?

References & Further Readings

Richard G. Hamermesh, Alisa Zalosh (2018), "Westlake Lanes: How Can This Business Be Saved? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.