Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Timothy Craig, Philip Sugai, Lukman Aroean. The Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation (referred as “Miku Crypton” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation Case Study

Crypton Future Media, a music software company based in Sapporo, Japan, developed Hatsune Miku (HM), a singing voice synthesizer software program (Vocaloid). Users entered lyrics and melodies to create songs, which were then sung by Hatsune Miku, a 16-year-old female virtual singer featured on the software packaging.Initially targeting professionals, HM unexpectedly caught on among amateurs who produced music, lyrics, artwork and videos, which they shared via websites such as YouTube, Nico Nico Douga and Crypton's Piapro. Users often worked collaboratively, and by March 2014, Miku had over 110,000 released songs, 170,000 uploaded videos, 1,000,000 created artworks and nearly two million Facebook "likes." Miku's popularity led to international media coverage and numerous new business opportunities for Crypton. She held sold out "live" concerts worldwide, starred in her own video game series produced by SEGA Games and was "hired" to advertise for companies including Toyota, Google and Domino's Pizza.Six years after the initial launch, Crypton and its chief executive officer were faced with a series of challenges related to the future development of their virtual idol and the businesses that grew around her. Timothy Craig is affiliated with Doshisha Business School.

Case Authors : Timothy Craig, Philip Sugai, Lukman Aroean

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007494)	-10007494	-	-
Year 1	3458704	-6548790	3458704	0.9434	3262928
Year 2	3962629	-2586161	7421333	0.89	3526726
Year 3	3945669	1359508	11367002	0.8396	3312860
Year 4	3250183	4609691	14617185	0.7921	2574449
TOTAL			14617185		12676963

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2669469

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Miku Crypton shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Miku Crypton have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Miku Crypton often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Miku Crypton needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007494)	-10007494	-	-
Year 1	3458704	-6548790	3458704	0.8696	3007569
Year 2	3962629	-2586161	7421333	0.7561	2996317
Year 3	3945669	1359508	11367002	0.6575	2594341
Year 4	3250183	4609691	14617185	0.5718	1858303
TOTAL					10456530

The Net NPV after 4 years is 449036

(10456530 - 10007494 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007494)	-10007494	-	-
Year 1	3458704	-6548790	3458704	0.8333	2882253
Year 2	3962629	-2586161	7421333	0.6944	2751826
Year 3	3945669	1359508	11367002	0.5787	2283373
Year 4	3250183	4609691	14617185	0.4823	1567411
TOTAL					9484863

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522631

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9484863 - 10007494 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Miku Crypton to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Miku Crypton has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Miku Crypton can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Miku Crypton, then the stock price of the Miku Crypton should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Miku Crypton should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation

References & Further Readings

Timothy Craig, Philip Sugai, Lukman Aroean (2018), "Hatsune Miku: Japanese Virtual Idol Ignites Global Value Co-creation Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.