The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Amy C. Edmondson, Faaiza Rashid, Herman Leonard. The The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) (referred as “Miners Buried” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) Case Study

To maximize their effectiveness, color cases should be printed in color.On August 5, 2010, 700,000 tons of some of the hardest rock in the world caved in Chile's century-old San JosA? mine. The collapse buried 33 miners at a depth almost twice the height of the Empire State Building-over 600 meters (2000 feet) below ground. Never had a recovery been attempted at such depths, let alone in the face of challenges like those posed by the San JosA? mine: unstable terrain, rock so hard it defied ordinary drill bits, severely limited time, and the potentially immobilizing fear that plagued the buried miners. Could the trapped miners and rescue workers mobilize before air and resources were depleted? The case describes the ensuing efforts that draw the resources of countless people and multiple organizations in Chile and around the world.

Case Authors : Amy C. Edmondson, Faaiza Rashid, Herman Leonard

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027622)	-10027622	-	-
Year 1	3468987	-6558635	3468987	0.9434	3272629
Year 2	3968036	-2590599	7437023	0.89	3531538
Year 3	3954095	1363496	11391118	0.8396	3319934
Year 4	3236467	4599963	14627585	0.7921	2563585
TOTAL			14627585		12687687

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2660065

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Miners Buried shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Miners Buried have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Miners Buried often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Miners Buried needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027622)	-10027622	-	-
Year 1	3468987	-6558635	3468987	0.8696	3016510
Year 2	3968036	-2590599	7437023	0.7561	3000405
Year 3	3954095	1363496	11391118	0.6575	2599882
Year 4	3236467	4599963	14627585	0.5718	1850461
TOTAL					10467258

The Net NPV after 4 years is 439636

(10467258 - 10027622 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027622)	-10027622	-	-
Year 1	3468987	-6558635	3468987	0.8333	2890823
Year 2	3968036	-2590599	7437023	0.6944	2755581
Year 3	3954095	1363496	11391118	0.5787	2288249
Year 4	3236467	4599963	14627585	0.4823	1560796
TOTAL					9495449

The Net NPV after 4 years is -532173

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9495449 - 10027622 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Miners Buried to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Miners Buried has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Miners Buried can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Miners Buried, then the stock price of the Miners Buried should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Miners Buried should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A)

References & Further Readings

Amy C. Edmondson, Faaiza Rashid, Herman Leonard (2018), "The 2010 Chilean Mining Rescue (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.