First Solar, Inc. in 2010 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for First Solar, Inc. in 2010 case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. First Solar, Inc. in 2010 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Morgan Jerome Hallmon, Robert A. Burgelman, Robert Siegel. The First Solar, Inc. in 2010 (referred as “Solar Pv” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of First Solar, Inc. in 2010 Case Study

In 2010, First Solar was the global leader in photovoltaic (PV) modules and looked to dominate the market going forward. The company's strong market position was largely predicated on its proprietary Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) cell technology, which had allowed First Solar to achieve the lowest cost in the industry. Despite its success to date, the company faced significant challenges in 2010. Declining subsidies in major markets in the EU, increased competition from well-heeled Chinese manufacturers, and the risk of disruption from higher efficiency technologies all threatened to undermine the progress that First Solar had made. The case provides a backdrop for analysis of how significant changes in the external market environment alter the relative importance of a company's distinctive competencies and require the development of new competencies. Specifically, the declining growth in subsidy markets requires First Solar to seek new sustainable markets in which PV solar is viable in the absence of subsidies. Success in these markets requires development of new skills not necessary for pure-play module manufacturing. In addition, the case explores key elements of technology leadership and mitigation of disruptive forces as the industry leader. Furthermore, the case examines the rationale for vertical integration within the solar industry and confronts the question of business definition. Management at First Solar must consider whether the company is simply in the module business in 2010 or whether its development and EPC capabilities have made it a more general energy company. The case also details the company's financial strategy, highlighting the intimate linkages with the overall corporate strategy. Finally, the company's corporate culture and management control systems are examined for their effectiveness at aligning the organization amidst significant external change.

Case Authors : Morgan Jerome Hallmon, Robert A. Burgelman, Robert Siegel

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for First Solar, Inc. in 2010 Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009982)	-10009982	-	-
Year 1	3460332	-6549650	3460332	0.9434	3264464
Year 2	3973077	-2576573	7433409	0.89	3536024
Year 3	3947909	1371336	11381318	0.8396	3314741
Year 4	3230460	4601796	14611778	0.7921	2558827
TOTAL			14611778		12674056

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664074

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Solar Pv shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Solar Pv have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of First Solar, Inc. in 2010

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Solar Pv often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Solar Pv needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009982)	-10009982	-	-
Year 1	3460332	-6549650	3460332	0.8696	3008984
Year 2	3973077	-2576573	7433409	0.7561	3004217
Year 3	3947909	1371336	11381318	0.6575	2595814
Year 4	3230460	4601796	14611778	0.5718	1847026
TOTAL					10456042

The Net NPV after 4 years is 446060

(10456042 - 10009982 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009982)	-10009982	-	-
Year 1	3460332	-6549650	3460332	0.8333	2883610
Year 2	3973077	-2576573	7433409	0.6944	2759081
Year 3	3947909	1371336	11381318	0.5787	2284670
Year 4	3230460	4601796	14611778	0.4823	1557899
TOTAL					9485260

The Net NPV after 4 years is -524722

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485260 - 10009982 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Solar Pv to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Solar Pv has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Solar Pv can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Solar Pv, then the stock price of the Solar Pv should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Solar Pv should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of First Solar, Inc. in 2010

References & Further Readings

Morgan Jerome Hallmon, Robert A. Burgelman, Robert Siegel (2018), "First Solar, Inc. in 2010 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.