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Ho Chi Minh City Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ho Chi Minh City case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ho Chi Minh City case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jose Gomez-Ibanez, Nguyen Xuan Thanh. The Ho Chi Minh City (referred as “City Minh” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Economy, Financial management, Innovation, International business, Policy, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Ho Chi Minh City Case Study


In March 2008 the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, formerly known as Saigon, approved a revised master plan designed to guide the development of the city through the year 2025. Vietnam's economy had been growing at rates of 6 to 8 percent per year for nearly two decades, and much of that growth was located in its cities, and in Ho Chi Minh City in particular. Real estate prices were at all time highs, development pressures threatened the historic French colonial core of the city and the wetlands to the west and southeast, and traffic congestion was growing rapidly as the city was registering 1300 new motorcycles and 150 new cars per day. The new master plan designated areas where growth would be encouraged and included a list of transportation and other infrastructure projects and policies designed to support the desired developments. Not all the elements of the plan seemed consistent with its goals, however, and the list of projects was so ambitious-that it was unlikely that all would be built on schedule. The obvious question was what policies and projects should receive priority. This case is designed to support a discussion of the problems of managing growth in a rapidly developing city. HKS Case Number 1909.0


Case Authors : Jose Gomez-Ibanez, Nguyen Xuan Thanh

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Economy, Financial management, Innovation, International business, Policy, Strategic planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ho Chi Minh City Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014083) -10014083 - -
Year 1 3458395 -6555688 3458395 0.9434 3262637
Year 2 3953073 -2602615 7411468 0.89 3518221
Year 3 3953329 1350714 11364797 0.8396 3319291
Year 4 3240133 4590847 14604930 0.7921 2566489
TOTAL 14604930 12666638




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2652555

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of City Minh have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. City Minh shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ho Chi Minh City

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at City Minh often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at City Minh needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014083) -10014083 - -
Year 1 3458395 -6555688 3458395 0.8696 3007300
Year 2 3953073 -2602615 7411468 0.7561 2989091
Year 3 3953329 1350714 11364797 0.6575 2599378
Year 4 3240133 4590847 14604930 0.5718 1852557
TOTAL 10448326


The Net NPV after 4 years is 434243

(10448326 - 10014083 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10014083) -10014083 - -
Year 1 3458395 -6555688 3458395 0.8333 2881996
Year 2 3953073 -2602615 7411468 0.6944 2745190
Year 3 3953329 1350714 11364797 0.5787 2287806
Year 4 3240133 4590847 14604930 0.4823 1562564
TOTAL 9477556


The Net NPV after 4 years is -536527

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9477556 - 10014083 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of City Minh to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of City Minh has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at City Minh can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at City Minh, then the stock price of the City Minh should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at City Minh should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Ho Chi Minh City

References & Further Readings

Jose Gomez-Ibanez, Nguyen Xuan Thanh (2018), "Ho Chi Minh City Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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