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NPV: CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) Net Present Value Case Analysis
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CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Gary P. Pisano. The CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) (referred as “Ciba Disposable” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Globalization, Manufacturing, Organizational structure, Product development, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) Case Study


Examines CIBA Vision's decision on whether to launch a major new R&D initiative to develop a low-cost, daily disposable contact lens, and how to organize such a project should it proceed. One group of executives favors setting up a small, autonomous project team organizationally and geographically isolated from the company's existing R&D operations. This approach will enable focus, but poses serious issues concerning future integration.


Case Authors : Gary P. Pisano

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Globalization, Manufacturing, Organizational structure, Product development, Strategy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028581) -10028581 - -
Year 1 3449563 -6579018 3449563 0.9434 3254305
Year 2 3965323 -2613695 7414886 0.89 3529123
Year 3 3952487 1338792 11367373 0.8396 3318584
Year 4 3225670 4564462 14593043 0.7921 2555033
TOTAL 14593043 12657045


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2628464

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ciba Disposable shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ciba Disposable have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ciba Disposable often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ciba Disposable needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028581) -10028581 - -
Year 1 3449563 -6579018 3449563 0.8696 2999620
Year 2 3965323 -2613695 7414886 0.7561 2998354
Year 3 3952487 1338792 11367373 0.6575 2598824
Year 4 3225670 4564462 14593043 0.5718 1844287
TOTAL 10441086


The Net NPV after 4 years is 412505

(10441086 - 10028581 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028581) -10028581 - -
Year 1 3449563 -6579018 3449563 0.8333 2874636
Year 2 3965323 -2613695 7414886 0.6944 2753697
Year 3 3952487 1338792 11367373 0.5787 2287319
Year 4 3225670 4564462 14593043 0.4823 1555589
TOTAL 9471241


The Net NPV after 4 years is -557340

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9471241 - 10028581 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ciba Disposable to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ciba Disposable has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ciba Disposable can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ciba Disposable, then the stock price of the Ciba Disposable should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ciba Disposable should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Gary P. Pisano (2018), "CIBA Vision: The Daily Disposable Lens Project (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.