Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Nakul Gupta, Arjun Bhatnagar, Jyotsna Bhatnagar. The Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises (referred as “Cyber Security” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Leadership, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises Case Study

It was summer of 2013, and the news of cyber-attacks and information security breaches was on the rise in India, as it was worldwide. Incidents such as the Axis bank's cyber-crime incident and the news of the American National Security Agency's global e-surveillance were creating consternation and dilemmas in the minds of information security consultants. One such consultant owned and operated an information security company, Percept Softech, a Lakshyaa Technology Lab's Jaipur franchise. The consultant was bogged down by a number of problems and dilemmas. The first was his marketing and business growth strategy, which was not helping him in promotion of his business. Information security solutions, spying, vulnerability checks, key logging and allied propositions were difficult to promote. Managing young millennial talent was another major problem for him. Apart from the woes of business growth, inefficiency in promotion and talent issues, the consultant was now facing another dilemma. Should he start a new business away from the umbrella of the Lakshyaa Technology Lab? Should he partner with a detective agency? Or should he relocate from Jaipur to a more central location (such as New Delhi) where perhaps people would be more aware of the importance of cyber security and students would be more interested in pursuing cyber security training?

Case Authors : Nakul Gupta, Arjun Bhatnagar, Jyotsna Bhatnagar

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : IT, Leadership, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029889)	-10029889	-	-
Year 1	3445529	-6584360	3445529	0.9434	3250499
Year 2	3974986	-2609374	7420515	0.89	3537723
Year 3	3968536	1359162	11389051	0.8396	3332059
Year 4	3229727	4588889	14618778	0.7921	2558246
TOTAL			14618778		12678528

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2648639

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cyber Security shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cyber Security have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cyber Security often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cyber Security needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029889)	-10029889	-	-
Year 1	3445529	-6584360	3445529	0.8696	2996112
Year 2	3974986	-2609374	7420515	0.7561	3005660
Year 3	3968536	1359162	11389051	0.6575	2609377
Year 4	3229727	4588889	14618778	0.5718	1846607
TOTAL					10457756

The Net NPV after 4 years is 427867

(10457756 - 10029889 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029889)	-10029889	-	-
Year 1	3445529	-6584360	3445529	0.8333	2871274
Year 2	3974986	-2609374	7420515	0.6944	2760407
Year 3	3968536	1359162	11389051	0.5787	2296606
Year 4	3229727	4588889	14618778	0.4823	1557546
TOTAL					9485833

The Net NPV after 4 years is -544056

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485833 - 10029889 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cyber Security to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cyber Security has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cyber Security can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cyber Security, then the stock price of the Cyber Security should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cyber Security should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises

References & Further Readings

Nakul Gupta, Arjun Bhatnagar, Jyotsna Bhatnagar (2018), "Cyberpreneur's Wake-up Call: Cyber Security and Millennial Talent Crises Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.