Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David A. Garvin, Sunru Yong. The Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration (referred as “Bergerac Omnivue” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Manufacturing, Mergers & acquisitions, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration Case Study

Bergerac Systems is a small, rapidly growing manufacturer of diagnostic instruments used in veterinary practices. The company introduced the OmniVue chemistry analyzer, which enables veterinarians to run a wide range of blood and blood chemistry tests on their animal patients in the office instead of sending them to outside laboratories. OmniVue is easy to operate and produces highly reliable results using a proprietary cartridge for holding the blood specimen during the analysis. Sales of these single-use cartridges are an important part of the revenue stream for the product line. The firm relies on two outside suppliers for the plastic components of the cartridges. The CEO is concerned about inconsistent delivery from the cartridge suppliers which have resulted in shortages and stock-outs. To address the supply chain problems, the CEO considers acquiring one of the suppliers, GenieTech, while the director of planning proposes building the required capabilities within the company's existing manufacturing facilities. Students must perform a quantitative and qualitative analysis of a "make vs. buy" decision while considering expected production capacities, market forecasts, and the company's overall sourcing strategy.

Case Authors : David A. Garvin, Sunru Yong

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Financial management, Manufacturing, Mergers & acquisitions, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002591)	-10002591	-	-
Year 1	3451341	-6551250	3451341	0.9434	3255982
Year 2	3962279	-2588971	7413620	0.89	3526414
Year 3	3947060	1358089	11360680	0.8396	3314028
Year 4	3232855	4590944	14593535	0.7921	2560724
TOTAL			14593535		12657148

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2654557

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Bergerac Omnivue have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Bergerac Omnivue shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Bergerac Omnivue often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Bergerac Omnivue needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002591)	-10002591	-	-
Year 1	3451341	-6551250	3451341	0.8696	3001166
Year 2	3962279	-2588971	7413620	0.7561	2996052
Year 3	3947060	1358089	11360680	0.6575	2595256
Year 4	3232855	4590944	14593535	0.5718	1848395
TOTAL					10440870

The Net NPV after 4 years is 438279

(10440870 - 10002591 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002591)	-10002591	-	-
Year 1	3451341	-6551250	3451341	0.8333	2876118
Year 2	3962279	-2588971	7413620	0.6944	2751583
Year 3	3947060	1358089	11360680	0.5787	2284178
Year 4	3232855	4590944	14593535	0.4823	1559054
TOTAL					9470933

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531658

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9470933 - 10002591 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Bergerac Omnivue to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Bergerac Omnivue has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Bergerac Omnivue can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Bergerac Omnivue, then the stock price of the Bergerac Omnivue should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Bergerac Omnivue should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration

References & Further Readings

David A. Garvin, Sunru Yong (2018), "Bergerac Systems: The Challenge of Backward Integration Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.