Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Beng Geok Wee, A. Lee Gilbert, Ivy Buche. The Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 (referred as “Tcs China” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Operations management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 Case Study

In 2002, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) set up operations in China, following its major client, GE Medical Systems. TCS China operations also supported the software needs of multinational and regional companies expanding in China, while providing the company with a platform to grow its local clientele base. In 2006, TCS announced a new global business initiative which included plans for large-scale operations in China. The aim was to grow its China operations to become TCS' second global delivery centre after India, functioning as its offshore IT outsourcing hub for the Asia Pacific region. In addition, China's growing domestic software market presented attractive opportunities for IT services. TCS shifted its focus to China's financial sector, as many of China's domestic banks were then undergoing a period of major organisational transformation. Given this, in 2007, the company set a target to increase its China-based manpower strength from 800 to 6,000 by 2011. However, the tight supply of IT talent in China was a major challenge and in early 2010 TCS' manpower strength reached 1,100. The company set a new target to quadruple its manpower strength to 5,000 by 2014. Product/service innovation was an essential catalyst to sustain its growth momentum and to maintain a competitive edge in the Chinese market. What steps should the company take to tap the rising demand for outsourcing services while tackling the problems of achieving service excellence in a resource-tight situation?

Case Authors : Beng Geok Wee, A. Lee Gilbert, Ivy Buche

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : IT, Operations management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018091)	-10018091	-	-
Year 1	3453328	-6564763	3453328	0.9434	3257857
Year 2	3966134	-2598629	7419462	0.89	3529845
Year 3	3940645	1342016	11360107	0.8396	3308642
Year 4	3223894	4565910	14584001	0.7921	2553626
TOTAL			14584001		12649969

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2631878

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Tcs China have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Tcs China shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Tcs China often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Tcs China needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018091)	-10018091	-	-
Year 1	3453328	-6564763	3453328	0.8696	3002894
Year 2	3966134	-2598629	7419462	0.7561	2998967
Year 3	3940645	1342016	11360107	0.6575	2591038
Year 4	3223894	4565910	14584001	0.5718	1843272
TOTAL					10436171

The Net NPV after 4 years is 418080

(10436171 - 10018091 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018091)	-10018091	-	-
Year 1	3453328	-6564763	3453328	0.8333	2877773
Year 2	3966134	-2598629	7419462	0.6944	2754260
Year 3	3940645	1342016	11360107	0.5787	2280466
Year 4	3223894	4565910	14584001	0.4823	1554733
TOTAL					9467232

The Net NPV after 4 years is -550859

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9467232 - 10018091 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Tcs China to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Tcs China has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Tcs China can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Tcs China, then the stock price of the Tcs China should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Tcs China should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010

References & Further Readings

Beng Geok Wee, A. Lee Gilbert, Ivy Buche (2018), "Tata Consultancy Services: Sustaining Growth Momentum in China 2010 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.