Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mark Jeffery, Joseph F. Norton, Derek Yung, Alex Gershbeyn. The Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs (referred as “Program Clothes” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Operations management, Project management, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs Case Study

The case concerns a real $25 million program consisting of nine concurrent projects to deliver and implement a custom-built in-store customer relationship management (CRM) system and a new point-of-sale system in 400 stores of a national retail chain. The name of the company has been disguised for confidentiality reasons. Once deployed, the new system should give Clothes 'R' Us a significant strategic advantage over competitors in the marketplace; it will increase in-store manager productivity, cut costs, and ultimately drive increased sales for the retail chain. The program is in crisis, however, because the product managers have just left to join a competitor. The explicit details of the program are given, including examples of best practice program governance and the real activity network diagram for the program. Detailed Excel spreadsheets are also provided with the actual earned value data for the program. Students analyze the spreadsheets and the data given in the case to diagnose the impact of the most recent risk event and past risk events that occurred in the program. Ultimately students must answer the essential executive questions: What is wrong with the program? How should it be fixed, and what is the impact in time and money to the program? In addition, qualitative warning signs are given throughout the case-these warning signs are red flags to executives for early proactive intervention in troubled projects.

Case Authors : Mark Jeffery, Joseph F. Norton, Derek Yung, Alex Gershbeyn

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : IT, Operations management, Project management, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004940)	-10004940	-	-
Year 1	3470512	-6534428	3470512	0.9434	3274068
Year 2	3953492	-2580936	7424004	0.89	3518594
Year 3	3973436	1392500	11397440	0.8396	3336173
Year 4	3224571	4617071	14622011	0.7921	2554162
TOTAL			14622011		12682997

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678057

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Program Clothes shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Program Clothes have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Program Clothes often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Program Clothes needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004940)	-10004940	-	-
Year 1	3470512	-6534428	3470512	0.8696	3017837
Year 2	3953492	-2580936	7424004	0.7561	2989408
Year 3	3973436	1392500	11397440	0.6575	2612599
Year 4	3224571	4617071	14622011	0.5718	1843659
TOTAL					10463502

The Net NPV after 4 years is 458562

(10463502 - 10004940 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004940)	-10004940	-	-
Year 1	3470512	-6534428	3470512	0.8333	2892093
Year 2	3953492	-2580936	7424004	0.6944	2745481
Year 3	3973436	1392500	11397440	0.5787	2299442
Year 4	3224571	4617071	14622011	0.4823	1555059
TOTAL					9492075

The Net NPV after 4 years is -512865

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492075 - 10004940 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Program Clothes to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Program Clothes has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Program Clothes can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Program Clothes, then the stock price of the Program Clothes should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Program Clothes should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs

References & Further Readings

Mark Jeffery, Joseph F. Norton, Derek Yung, Alex Gershbeyn (2018), "Clothes 'R' Us Point-of-Sale Initiative: Managing IT Programs Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.