×




Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kenneth Goh, Ken Mark. The Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division (referred as “Ecs Canaan” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership, Leading teams.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division Case Study


In January 2015, the chief executive officer (CEO) of the Canaan Group, a privately owned logistics conglomerate of businesses in Vancouver, Canada, was considering how to capitalize on opportunities in the freight forwarding industry. The first thing he needed to do was stabilize the Export Cargo Specialist (ECS) division. The ECS division focused on ocean freight forwarding-helping customers coordinate and ship goods from origin to destination. To counter a glut of shipping capacity and fall in demand over the past few years, the CEO had restructured the roles and assignments in the division. He attempted to create a cross-trained workforce capable of performing a range of functions for clients. However, issues emerged with the restructuring, leading to employee departures and, along with the industry changes, a net loss in operations. The CEO was looking to turn things around and avoid further mistakes. He wondered if he should give his restructuring experiment more time, bring in an experienced project manager, or promote a current ECS staff member to find a solution.


Case Authors : Kenneth Goh, Ken Mark

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Leadership, Leading teams




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018245) -10018245 - -
Year 1 3468420 -6549825 3468420 0.9434 3272094
Year 2 3968597 -2581228 7437017 0.89 3532037
Year 3 3962895 1381667 11399912 0.8396 3327323
Year 4 3230283 4611950 14630195 0.7921 2558687
TOTAL 14630195 12690141




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2671896

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ecs Canaan have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ecs Canaan shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ecs Canaan often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ecs Canaan needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018245) -10018245 - -
Year 1 3468420 -6549825 3468420 0.8696 3016017
Year 2 3968597 -2581228 7437017 0.7561 3000829
Year 3 3962895 1381667 11399912 0.6575 2605668
Year 4 3230283 4611950 14630195 0.5718 1846925
TOTAL 10469439


The Net NPV after 4 years is 451194

(10469439 - 10018245 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018245) -10018245 - -
Year 1 3468420 -6549825 3468420 0.8333 2890350
Year 2 3968597 -2581228 7437017 0.6944 2755970
Year 3 3962895 1381667 11399912 0.5787 2293342
Year 4 3230283 4611950 14630195 0.4823 1557814
TOTAL 9497476


The Net NPV after 4 years is -520769

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9497476 - 10018245 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ecs Canaan to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ecs Canaan has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ecs Canaan can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ecs Canaan, then the stock price of the Ecs Canaan should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ecs Canaan should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division

References & Further Readings

Kenneth Goh, Ken Mark (2018), "Canaan Group: Reshaping the ECS Division Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


CAE Inc. SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Electronic Instr. & Controls


Hanung Toys Textiles Ltd SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Textiles - Non Apparel


Fujian Kuncai Material Tech SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Basic Materials , Chemical Manufacturing


Balmer Lawrie&Co. SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Basic Materials , Containers & Packaging


Yamaha Corp. SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Recreational Products


Kyoei Tanker Co Ltd SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Transportation , Water Transportation


Sanki Engineering SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Capital Goods , Construction Services


SDN SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Electronic Instr. & Controls


Guangdong Zhengye Tech SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Capital Goods , Misc. Capital Goods


TJ Media SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Audio & Video Equipment