Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Anthony J. Mayo, Heather Beckham. The Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake (referred as “Cafe Cupcake” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Human resource management, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake Case Study

Cafe Cupcake (CC) is a fast-casual restaurant chain that offers artisan cupcakes and light fare throughout the southeastern United States and Texas. This case chronicles the growth and evolution of Cafe Cupcake. It also considers the specific human resource challenges the company's leaders face at the end of the case as they attempt to scale CC's business concept. By 2018, Cafe Cupcake had achieved several significant milestones. It operated 35 cafes with almost 700 employees. Its unique restaurant concept and distinctive cupcakes fueled rapid growth, which led to a more complex, vertically-integrated organization. The original founding team of Emma Bisset and Aneisha Davis recently added Dr. Jonathan Patel, an expert in organizational behavior and human-resource management, who turned down a partnership offer at a leading consulting firm to become Cafe Cupcake's chief operating officer. The case looks at the organization from the partners' point of view. Anticipating continued rapid growth, the partners question how Cafe Cupcake should respond to strategic, human resource, and organizational challenges that lie ahead. What will best position the company for future success? What organizational practices should the partners sustain, drop, or add to enable this success? The Cafe Cupcake case highlights the organizational challenges that companies face as they grow and evolve. It can be used in an introductory undergraduate or MBA course to illustrate how to manage organizational change and scale new ventures. It is also appropriate for advanced electives in Organizational Behavior, Leading Change, Strategic Human Resource Management, and Entrepreneurial Management or in an Executive MBA program.

Case Authors : Anthony J. Mayo, Heather Beckham

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Human resource management, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016150)	-10016150	-	-
Year 1	3448260	-6567890	3448260	0.9434	3253075
Year 2	3954461	-2613429	7402721	0.89	3519456
Year 3	3972641	1359212	11375362	0.8396	3335506
Year 4	3251541	4610753	14626903	0.7921	2575525
TOTAL			14626903		12683563

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2667413

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cafe Cupcake have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cafe Cupcake shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cafe Cupcake often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cafe Cupcake needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016150)	-10016150	-	-
Year 1	3448260	-6567890	3448260	0.8696	2998487
Year 2	3954461	-2613429	7402721	0.7561	2990141
Year 3	3972641	1359212	11375362	0.6575	2612076
Year 4	3251541	4610753	14626903	0.5718	1859079
TOTAL					10459783

The Net NPV after 4 years is 443633

(10459783 - 10016150 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016150)	-10016150	-	-
Year 1	3448260	-6567890	3448260	0.8333	2873550
Year 2	3954461	-2613429	7402721	0.6944	2746153
Year 3	3972641	1359212	11375362	0.5787	2298982
Year 4	3251541	4610753	14626903	0.4823	1568066
TOTAL					9486751

The Net NPV after 4 years is -529399

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486751 - 10016150 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cafe Cupcake to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cafe Cupcake has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cafe Cupcake can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cafe Cupcake, then the stock price of the Cafe Cupcake should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cafe Cupcake should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake

References & Further Readings

Anthony J. Mayo, Heather Beckham (2018), "Recipe for Success: Growth and Evolution at Cafe Cupcake Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.