Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Susan J. Van Weelden, Laurie George Busuttil. The Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis (referred as “Tools Method” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Communication. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Presentations, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis Case Study

Case analysis is an effective tool for teaching, learning, and most importantly, practising the art and science of management. The case method immerses students in real-life situations, allowing them to develop their business skills by analyzing realistic situations, applying business theories and tools, and making substantiated recommendations for a course of action. However, working with cases is a pedagogical approach that is unfamiliar to most new business students and often inadequately understood by advanced students. The Case Guide Series introduces students to the case method and, in discrete notes, walks them through the tasks that are typically involved in case assignments: analyzing a case, discussing cases in class, writing case reports and giving presentations (individually and in groups), and writing case exams. A final note introduces students to the most common business tools used for case analysis. This field-tested series is best used as a complete package to orient students to the case method, but each note also stands on its own and can be used to supplement other course materials. Using Common Tools for Case Analysis: Case analysis can use any of a number of business tools and theories, but some tools are relevant to and used in many situations. Note 7 of the Case Guide Series introduces students to the most common tools used for financial analysis, assessing profitability and market potential, analyzing strategy and the competitive environment, and assessing stakeholder and performance indicators. Several quick examples demonstrate how the tools can be used. Susan J. Van Weelden and Laurie George Busuttil are affiliated with Redeemer University College.

Case Authors : Susan J. Van Weelden, Laurie George Busuttil

Topic : Communication

Related Areas : Presentations, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009437)	-10009437	-	-
Year 1	3447360	-6562077	3447360	0.9434	3252226
Year 2	3978409	-2583668	7425769	0.89	3540770
Year 3	3971023	1387355	11396792	0.8396	3334147
Year 4	3251702	4639057	14648494	0.7921	2575653
TOTAL			14648494		12702796

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2693359

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Tools Method shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Tools Method have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Communication Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Tools Method often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Tools Method needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009437)	-10009437	-	-
Year 1	3447360	-6562077	3447360	0.8696	2997704
Year 2	3978409	-2583668	7425769	0.7561	3008249
Year 3	3971023	1387355	11396792	0.6575	2611012
Year 4	3251702	4639057	14648494	0.5718	1859171
TOTAL					10476136

The Net NPV after 4 years is 466699

(10476136 - 10009437 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009437)	-10009437	-	-
Year 1	3447360	-6562077	3447360	0.8333	2872800
Year 2	3978409	-2583668	7425769	0.6944	2762784
Year 3	3971023	1387355	11396792	0.5787	2298046
Year 4	3251702	4639057	14648494	0.4823	1568143
TOTAL					9501773

The Net NPV after 4 years is -507664

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9501773 - 10009437 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Tools Method to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Tools Method has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Tools Method can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Tools Method, then the stock price of the Tools Method should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Tools Method should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis

References & Further Readings

Susan J. Van Weelden, Laurie George Busuttil (2018), "Student Guide to the Case Method: Note 7 - Using Common Tools for Case Analysis Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.