Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jose B. Alvarez, Mariana Cal, Fernanda Miguel. The Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version (referred as “Canuelas Molino” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, International business, Mergers & acquisitions, Product development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version Case Study

Molino Canuelas was a vertically integrated food company with a management system that allowed it to innovate and grow systematically. With sales of $2 billion in 2016, the firm not only produced flour, vegetable oil and packaged food products; it also owned a port terminal, a packaging plat and an Agribusiness Services Division to support over 8,000 agricultural producers. CEO and Chairman Aldo Navilli, who had run the company since 1986 and had developed its management system, wanted to ensure that as the company grew and expanded, it would maintain its culture and working style. The company was exporting to 32 countries and had manufacturing plants in Brazil and Uruguay. As it continued its international expansion, should it follow the same vertical integration strategy in other countries or should it develop its retail business through partnerships or alliances?

Case Authors : Jose B. Alvarez, Mariana Cal, Fernanda Miguel

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : International business, Mergers & acquisitions, Product development

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004314)	-10004314	-	-
Year 1	3464736	-6539578	3464736	0.9434	3268619
Year 2	3954978	-2584600	7419714	0.89	3519916
Year 3	3968906	1384306	11388620	0.8396	3332370
Year 4	3232493	4616799	14621113	0.7921	2560437
TOTAL			14621113		12681342

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677028

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Canuelas Molino shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Canuelas Molino have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Canuelas Molino often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Canuelas Molino needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004314)	-10004314	-	-
Year 1	3464736	-6539578	3464736	0.8696	3012814
Year 2	3954978	-2584600	7419714	0.7561	2990532
Year 3	3968906	1384306	11388620	0.6575	2609620
Year 4	3232493	4616799	14621113	0.5718	1848188
TOTAL					10461154

The Net NPV after 4 years is 456840

(10461154 - 10004314 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004314)	-10004314	-	-
Year 1	3464736	-6539578	3464736	0.8333	2887280
Year 2	3954978	-2584600	7419714	0.6944	2746513
Year 3	3968906	1384306	11388620	0.5787	2296821
Year 4	3232493	4616799	14621113	0.4823	1558880
TOTAL					9489493

The Net NPV after 4 years is -514821

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489493 - 10004314 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Canuelas Molino to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Canuelas Molino has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Canuelas Molino can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Canuelas Molino, then the stock price of the Canuelas Molino should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Canuelas Molino should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version

References & Further Readings

Jose B. Alvarez, Mariana Cal, Fernanda Miguel (2018), "Molino Canuelas: Serving Customers from Seed Development to the Kitchen Table, Spanish Version Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.