Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Andrew S. Li, Gerald Yong Gao, Hung Gay Fung. The Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management (referred as “Ping An's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Growth strategy, Recession, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management Case Study

By 2007, China's Ping An Insurance Co. ("Ping An") had grown into the second-largest life insurer in China. Its goal was to become a universal financial services provider by expanding into asset management and banking. These three businesses were the foundation of Ping An's "three-pillar strategy". It had already made two domestic banking acquisitions, but none in asset management. In November 2007, Ping An acquired a 4.2% stake in Fortis, the Belgo-Dutch financial conglomerate, and planned to buy half of Fortis's asset management business, which would be a big step towards reaching its goal. Yet this ambitious overseas expansion plan was crushed by the adverse effects of the US subprime problem and the global financial crisis. The company needs to address important lessons, re-evaluate its overseas investment strategy and learn how to implement risk management in the future.

Case Authors : Andrew S. Li, Gerald Yong Gao, Hung Gay Fung

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Growth strategy, Recession, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000028)	-10000028	-	-
Year 1	3465459	-6534569	3465459	0.9434	3269301
Year 2	3956733	-2577836	7422192	0.89	3521478
Year 3	3955102	1377266	11377294	0.8396	3320780
Year 4	3241945	4619211	14619239	0.7921	2567924
TOTAL			14619239		12679483

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2679455

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ping An's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ping An's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ping An's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ping An's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000028)	-10000028	-	-
Year 1	3465459	-6534569	3465459	0.8696	3013443
Year 2	3956733	-2577836	7422192	0.7561	2991859
Year 3	3955102	1377266	11377294	0.6575	2600544
Year 4	3241945	4619211	14619239	0.5718	1853593
TOTAL					10459438

The Net NPV after 4 years is 459410

(10459438 - 10000028 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000028)	-10000028	-	-
Year 1	3465459	-6534569	3465459	0.8333	2887883
Year 2	3956733	-2577836	7422192	0.6944	2747731
Year 3	3955102	1377266	11377294	0.5787	2288832
Year 4	3241945	4619211	14619239	0.4823	1563438
TOTAL					9487884

The Net NPV after 4 years is -512144

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487884 - 10000028 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ping An's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ping An's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ping An's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ping An's, then the stock price of the Ping An's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ping An's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management

References & Further Readings

Andrew S. Li, Gerald Yong Gao, Hung Gay Fung (2018), "Ping An's Overseas Expansion: Financial Uncertainties and Risk Management Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.