Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Anshuman Tripathy, Ramanath Pai, Vaibhav Jain. The Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) (referred as “Manipal Warehouse” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Operations management, Project management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) Case Study

This case introduces the concepts of information and material flow analysis, operational improvement procedure and the steps to be taken for successful change management in the context of warehouse consolidation at Manipal Hospitals Bangalore (MHB). The case describes the warehouse consolidation project which was expected to lower operational costs and improve service levels by leveraging economies of scale through aggregation of demand. It discusses the benefits of aggregation of demand and the procedure to design a supply network based on the demand pattern and criticality of products. However the desired outcomes were not achieved initially and the service levels plummeted rather than increasing. The second case then describes the steps taken to manage the change and meet the desired goals. This case goes beyond process improvement, to its implementation, the challenges faced, and related change management techniques needed for ensuring success of the process improvement initiatives. The case challenges the students to think about the various stakeholders involved when change initiatives are implemented on an organization level and to recommend solutions based on the voices of various internal customers. The case also encourages the students to think about the various aspects of organizational behavior that are involved at the time of changes in management processes. The Part B case showcases the changes that were implemented by the protagonist to improve and deliver the necessary service levels.

Case Authors : Anshuman Tripathy, Ramanath Pai, Vaibhav Jain

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Operations management, Project management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10006185)	-10006185	-	-
Year 1	3454057	-6552128	3454057	0.9434	3258544
Year 2	3979602	-2572526	7433659	0.89	3541832
Year 3	3953914	1381388	11387573	0.8396	3319782
Year 4	3221911	4603299	14609484	0.7921	2552055
TOTAL			14609484		12672214

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2666029

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Manipal Warehouse shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Manipal Warehouse have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Manipal Warehouse often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Manipal Warehouse needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10006185)	-10006185	-	-
Year 1	3454057	-6552128	3454057	0.8696	3003528
Year 2	3979602	-2572526	7433659	0.7561	3009151
Year 3	3953914	1381388	11387573	0.6575	2599763
Year 4	3221911	4603299	14609484	0.5718	1842138
TOTAL					10454579

The Net NPV after 4 years is 448394

(10454579 - 10006185 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10006185)	-10006185	-	-
Year 1	3454057	-6552128	3454057	0.8333	2878381
Year 2	3979602	-2572526	7433659	0.6944	2763613
Year 3	3953914	1381388	11387573	0.5787	2288145
Year 4	3221911	4603299	14609484	0.4823	1553777
TOTAL					9483915

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522270

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483915 - 10006185 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Manipal Warehouse to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Manipal Warehouse has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Manipal Warehouse can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Manipal Warehouse, then the stock price of the Manipal Warehouse should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Manipal Warehouse should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A)

References & Further Readings

Anshuman Tripathy, Ramanath Pai, Vaibhav Jain (2018), "Warehouse Consolidation Project at Manipal Hospital Bangalore (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.