The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sana EL Hajj. The The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision (referred as “Sap Dc” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision Case Study

The Diet Center (DC) was Lebanon's first nutritional company to offer food consultancy services and meal catering to the public. The company faced numerous challenges competing in an unstable local market. Despite her company's growth in sales and product development, DC's general manager was extremely frustrated with the operating results and the bottom line. In November 2014, she decided to consider migrating to an enterprise resource planning system that would integrate all of DC's operations and deliver real-time relevant financial and operational data. The sales manager of System, Applications, and Products in Data Processing (SAP) for the Middle East and North Africa region suggested that DC should migrate to the gold standard SAP business management software to reap many benefits. Should DC implement the new SAP system? Would the benefits exceed the costs? What challenges would DC face if it chooses to adopt a SAP system? Sana EL Hajj is affiliated with American University of Beirut.

Case Authors : Sana EL Hajj

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018859)	-10018859	-	-
Year 1	3451546	-6567313	3451546	0.9434	3256175
Year 2	3972811	-2594502	7424357	0.89	3535788
Year 3	3957592	1363090	11381949	0.8396	3322871
Year 4	3222440	4585530	14604389	0.7921	2552474
TOTAL			14604389		12667308

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2648449

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Sap Dc shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Sap Dc have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Sap Dc often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Sap Dc needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018859)	-10018859	-	-
Year 1	3451546	-6567313	3451546	0.8696	3001344
Year 2	3972811	-2594502	7424357	0.7561	3004016
Year 3	3957592	1363090	11381949	0.6575	2602181
Year 4	3222440	4585530	14604389	0.5718	1842441
TOTAL					10449982

The Net NPV after 4 years is 431123

(10449982 - 10018859 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018859)	-10018859	-	-
Year 1	3451546	-6567313	3451546	0.8333	2876288
Year 2	3972811	-2594502	7424357	0.6944	2758897
Year 3	3957592	1363090	11381949	0.5787	2290273
Year 4	3222440	4585530	14604389	0.4823	1554032
TOTAL					9479490

The Net NPV after 4 years is -539369

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479490 - 10018859 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Sap Dc to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Sap Dc has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Sap Dc can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Sap Dc, then the stock price of the Sap Dc should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Sap Dc should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision

References & Further Readings

Sana EL Hajj (2018), "The Diet Center: The SAP ERP Decision Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.