Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Siko Sikochi, Suraj Srinivasan, Quinn Pitcher. The Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group (referred as “Noble Noble's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, Negotiations, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group Case Study

Noble Group, founded in 1986, was a large commodities trader based in Hong Kong and listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. In 2012, Noble shifted its business strategy towards an asset-light model. Under this model, Noble did not own mines or farms to produce commodities but built commodity sourcing capacity by working with and investing in producers in exchange for purchase and marketing contracts. Noble also worked with customers to secure supply contracts. Noble had a portfolio of 12,000 commodity contracts by end of 2014. The contracts were measured at fair value. Iceberg Research, an anonymous blog, released a series of reports starting in February 2015 alleging that Noble was too aggressive in its fair value accounting for contracts and investments in producers. Iceberg did not accuse Noble of fraud, but suggested that Noble's profits and balance sheet were highly inflated and Noble was headed for disaster. Noble defended its accounting policies and hired PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to provide an independent review of fair value measurement. PwC released a positive review of Noble's accounting. However, questions remained whether Noble's contracts and investments were overvalued. The case explores Noble's business and investigates whether questions about its accounting practices were in the past following the attestation by PwC.

Case Authors : Siko Sikochi, Suraj Srinivasan, Quinn Pitcher

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial analysis, Negotiations, Policy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029593)	-10029593	-	-
Year 1	3446726	-6582867	3446726	0.9434	3251628
Year 2	3981244	-2601623	7427970	0.89	3543293
Year 3	3948202	1346579	11376172	0.8396	3314987
Year 4	3238232	4584811	14614404	0.7921	2564983
TOTAL			14614404		12674891

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2645298

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Noble Noble's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Noble Noble's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Noble Noble's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Noble Noble's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029593)	-10029593	-	-
Year 1	3446726	-6582867	3446726	0.8696	2997153
Year 2	3981244	-2601623	7427970	0.7561	3010392
Year 3	3948202	1346579	11376172	0.6575	2596007
Year 4	3238232	4584811	14614404	0.5718	1851470
TOTAL					10455022

The Net NPV after 4 years is 425429

(10455022 - 10029593 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029593)	-10029593	-	-
Year 1	3446726	-6582867	3446726	0.8333	2872272
Year 2	3981244	-2601623	7427970	0.6944	2764753
Year 3	3948202	1346579	11376172	0.5787	2284839
Year 4	3238232	4584811	14614404	0.4823	1561647
TOTAL					9483511

The Net NPV after 4 years is -546082

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483511 - 10029593 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Noble Noble's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Noble Noble's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Noble Noble's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Noble Noble's, then the stock price of the Noble Noble's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Noble Noble's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group

References & Further Readings

Siko Sikochi, Suraj Srinivasan, Quinn Pitcher (2018), "Fair Value Accounting Controversy at Noble Group Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.