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China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mingkang Liu, Hugh Thomas, Gang Du. The China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation (referred as “Cmb's Cmb” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation Case Study


The chairman and chief executive officer of China Merchants Bank (CMB) had led CMB through a decade of rapid development, implementing two transformations to save capital, develop culture and serve the financial needs of China's new businesses and consumers. Notwithstanding successes, however, CMB's capital constraint was biting and the stock market was punishing CMB's shareholders. Slower domestic growth, an uncertain international economy and increased government regulation increased the challenge facing the chairman: to set CMB's future strategy.


Case Authors : Mingkang Liu, Hugh Thomas, Gang Du

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Leadership




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10020813) -10020813 - -
Year 1 3470287 -6550526 3470287 0.9434 3273856
Year 2 3964275 -2586251 7434562 0.89 3528191
Year 3 3946918 1360667 11381480 0.8396 3313908
Year 4 3231467 4592134 14612947 0.7921 2559625
TOTAL 14612947 12675579


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2654766

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cmb's Cmb have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cmb's Cmb shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cmb's Cmb often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cmb's Cmb needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10020813) -10020813 - -
Year 1 3470287 -6550526 3470287 0.8696 3017641
Year 2 3964275 -2586251 7434562 0.7561 2997561
Year 3 3946918 1360667 11381480 0.6575 2595163
Year 4 3231467 4592134 14612947 0.5718 1847602
TOTAL 10457967


The Net NPV after 4 years is 437154

(10457967 - 10020813 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10020813) -10020813 - -
Year 1 3470287 -6550526 3470287 0.8333 2891906
Year 2 3964275 -2586251 7434562 0.6944 2752969
Year 3 3946918 1360667 11381480 0.5787 2284096
Year 4 3231467 4592134 14612947 0.4823 1558385
TOTAL 9487356


The Net NPV after 4 years is -533457

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487356 - 10020813 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cmb's Cmb to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cmb's Cmb has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cmb's Cmb can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cmb's Cmb, then the stock price of the Cmb's Cmb should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cmb's Cmb should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Mingkang Liu, Hugh Thomas, Gang Du (2018), "China Merchants Bank: Business Model Transformation Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.