Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Susan Chaplinsky. The Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise (referred as “Bear Bear's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Recession.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise Case Study

This case is suitable for courses on corporate finance at the graduate or advanced undergraduate level that cover banking, financing, security design, capital structure, or capital markets. The case covers the events that led to the collapse of Bear Stearns's (Bear's) hedge funds in July 2007 and traces management's response to the situation through January 2008. These events include macroeconomic factors that fueled the housing boom, the growth of securitization, structured products, and credit default swaps, and the maturity mismatch of financial institutions' funding strategies. The case provides a rich setting for students to understand the increasingly interrelated nature of banking activities, which poses large systemic risk to the financial sector. Two key questions are posed: "What factors were responsible for the collapse of Bear's hedge funds?" and "Was the response by Bear's management adequate in light of the collapse and the credit problems that ensued?" John Corso is a hedge fund manager with large cash balances in a prime brokerage account at Bear. In January 2008, he receives a call from a senior Bear executive reassuring him that the firm is in good hands following a shakeup of top management. The previous summer, two Bear hedge funds collapsed as a result of their investments in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) that were backed by subprime mortgages. As a longtime client of Bear, Corso must evaluate whether the steps taken by management have been sufficient to resolve its credit problems or whether now is the time to remove his funds from the firm.

Case Authors : Susan Chaplinsky

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Recession

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026680)	-10026680	-	-
Year 1	3446872	-6579808	3446872	0.9434	3251766
Year 2	3969593	-2610215	7416465	0.89	3532924
Year 3	3943620	1333405	11360085	0.8396	3311139
Year 4	3250951	4584356	14611036	0.7921	2575058
TOTAL			14611036		12670887

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2644207

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Bear Bear's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Bear Bear's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Bear Bear's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Bear Bear's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026680)	-10026680	-	-
Year 1	3446872	-6579808	3446872	0.8696	2997280
Year 2	3969593	-2610215	7416465	0.7561	3001583
Year 3	3943620	1333405	11360085	0.6575	2592994
Year 4	3250951	4584356	14611036	0.5718	1858742
TOTAL					10450599

The Net NPV after 4 years is 423919

(10450599 - 10026680 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026680)	-10026680	-	-
Year 1	3446872	-6579808	3446872	0.8333	2872393
Year 2	3969593	-2610215	7416465	0.6944	2756662
Year 3	3943620	1333405	11360085	0.5787	2282188
Year 4	3250951	4584356	14611036	0.4823	1567781
TOTAL					9479024

The Net NPV after 4 years is -547656

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479024 - 10026680 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Bear Bear's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Bear Bear's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Bear Bear's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Bear Bear's, then the stock price of the Bear Bear's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Bear Bear's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise

References & Further Readings

Susan Chaplinsky (2018), "Bear Stearns and the Seeds of Its Demise Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.