Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Francis Warnock. The Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 (referred as “Dollar Depreciate” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Global strategy, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 Case Study

The person responsible for global allocation for a large pension fund had been asked by the board of directors in April 2008 for an assessment on whether she thinks the dollar would appreciate or depreciate over the next five to ten years. She has heard mostly negative views about path of the dollar over the long term, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's suggestion that the Gulf States, and others, should de-link from the U.S. dollar as a way to contain inflationary pressures. Currently, the fund is 60% in dollar-based assets and 40% in foreign markets. The dollar's sharp decline against a broad array of currencies, central banks diversifying reserves away from dollars, and some OPEC members invoicing oil-sales currencies in other than dollars are discouraging news. She considers whether to increase the foreign weighting and, because the dollar has overshot its "long-term value," whether it is now more likely to appreciate than depreciate, and finally whether the fund should use the recent dollar pessimism as an opportunity to take profits on its foreign positions and increase the weighting on the now relatively cheap U.S. securities.

Case Authors : Francis Warnock

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Global strategy, Policy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10015277)	-10015277	-	-
Year 1	3467609	-6547668	3467609	0.9434	3271329
Year 2	3977250	-2570418	7444859	0.89	3539738
Year 3	3975373	1404955	11420232	0.8396	3337800
Year 4	3225985	4630940	14646217	0.7921	2555282
TOTAL			14646217		12704150

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2688873

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Dollar Depreciate have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Dollar Depreciate shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Dollar Depreciate often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Dollar Depreciate needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10015277)	-10015277	-	-
Year 1	3467609	-6547668	3467609	0.8696	3015312
Year 2	3977250	-2570418	7444859	0.7561	3007372
Year 3	3975373	1404955	11420232	0.6575	2613872
Year 4	3225985	4630940	14646217	0.5718	1844467
TOTAL					10481024

The Net NPV after 4 years is 465747

(10481024 - 10015277 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10015277)	-10015277	-	-
Year 1	3467609	-6547668	3467609	0.8333	2889674
Year 2	3977250	-2570418	7444859	0.6944	2761979
Year 3	3975373	1404955	11420232	0.5787	2300563
Year 4	3225985	4630940	14646217	0.4823	1555741
TOTAL					9507958

The Net NPV after 4 years is -507319

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9507958 - 10015277 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Dollar Depreciate to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Dollar Depreciate has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Dollar Depreciate can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Dollar Depreciate, then the stock price of the Dollar Depreciate should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Dollar Depreciate should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008

References & Further Readings

Francis Warnock (2018), "Long-Term FX Strategies in 2008 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.