Numeric Investors L.P. Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Numeric Investors L.P. case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Numeric Investors L.P. case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Andre F. Perold, Brian Tierney. The Numeric Investors L.P. (referred as “Numeric Momentum” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Financial markets, Product development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Numeric Investors L.P. Case Study

Numeric Investors manages equity portfolios with the use of a momentum model and a value model. The momentum model is based on earnings surprise and analysts' revisions of their earnings estimates. The firm offers long-short as well as long-only strategies, and its approach involves high portfolio turnover. Numeric has experienced rapid growth in assets under management, which has resulted in higher transaction costs. The firm has already closed many of its products to further investment, and needs to decide where to go next. The case provides a rich setting within which to discuss value investing, momentum investing, the efficiency of analysts' earnings estimates, stock market efficiency, long-short investing, transaction costs, the relationship between assets under management and performance, performance fees, and the business strategies of investment management firms.

Case Authors : Andre F. Perold, Brian Tierney

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Financial markets, Product development

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Numeric Investors L.P. Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024436)	-10024436	-	-
Year 1	3469171	-6555265	3469171	0.9434	3272803
Year 2	3956821	-2598444	7425992	0.89	3521557
Year 3	3958660	1360216	11384652	0.8396	3323767
Year 4	3249636	4609852	14634288	0.7921	2574016
TOTAL			14634288		12692143

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2667707

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Numeric Momentum shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Numeric Momentum have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Numeric Investors L.P.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Numeric Momentum often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Numeric Momentum needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024436)	-10024436	-	-
Year 1	3469171	-6555265	3469171	0.8696	3016670
Year 2	3956821	-2598444	7425992	0.7561	2991925
Year 3	3958660	1360216	11384652	0.6575	2602883
Year 4	3249636	4609852	14634288	0.5718	1857990
TOTAL					10469469

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445033

(10469469 - 10024436 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024436)	-10024436	-	-
Year 1	3469171	-6555265	3469171	0.8333	2890976
Year 2	3956821	-2598444	7425992	0.6944	2747792
Year 3	3958660	1360216	11384652	0.5787	2290891
Year 4	3249636	4609852	14634288	0.4823	1567147
TOTAL					9496806

The Net NPV after 4 years is -527630

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9496806 - 10024436 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Numeric Momentum to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Numeric Momentum has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Numeric Momentum can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Numeric Momentum, then the stock price of the Numeric Momentum should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Numeric Momentum should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Numeric Investors L.P.

References & Further Readings

Andre F. Perold, Brian Tierney (2018), "Numeric Investors L.P. Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.