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Water Markets from an Economic Point of View Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Water Markets from an Economic Point of View case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Water Markets from an Economic Point of View case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Peter Debaere. The Water Markets from an Economic Point of View (referred as “Water Scarcity” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, International business.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Water Markets from an Economic Point of View Case Study


Recent droughts and the increase in food prices they trigger underscore that freshwater scarcity is bound to be a major challenge of the 21st century. Increased water demand due to population growth and rising living standards (with changing diets and lifestyles) strains available water resources. In spite of reports about an imminent water crisis, the world is not running out of water. Water is a renewable global resource of which there is more than enough. The major concern is that water is very unevenly distributed across and within countries. Water scarcity is thus primarily a local phenomenon, and fears mount that climate change might worsen an already bad situation in water-scarce areas.


Case Authors : Peter Debaere

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : International business




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Water Markets from an Economic Point of View Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10024226) -10024226 - -
Year 1 3450247 -6573979 3450247 0.9434 3254950
Year 2 3981192 -2592787 7431439 0.89 3543247
Year 3 3969224 1376437 11400663 0.8396 3332637
Year 4 3238707 4615144 14639370 0.7921 2565359
TOTAL 14639370 12696193


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2671967

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Water Scarcity shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Water Scarcity have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Water Markets from an Economic Point of View

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Water Scarcity often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Water Scarcity needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10024226) -10024226 - -
Year 1 3450247 -6573979 3450247 0.8696 3000215
Year 2 3981192 -2592787 7431439 0.7561 3010353
Year 3 3969224 1376437 11400663 0.6575 2609829
Year 4 3238707 4615144 14639370 0.5718 1851741
TOTAL 10472138


The Net NPV after 4 years is 447912

(10472138 - 10024226 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10024226) -10024226 - -
Year 1 3450247 -6573979 3450247 0.8333 2875206
Year 2 3981192 -2592787 7431439 0.6944 2764717
Year 3 3969224 1376437 11400663 0.5787 2297005
Year 4 3238707 4615144 14639370 0.4823 1561876
TOTAL 9498804


The Net NPV after 4 years is -525422

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498804 - 10024226 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Water Scarcity to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Water Scarcity has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Water Scarcity can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Water Scarcity, then the stock price of the Water Scarcity should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Water Scarcity should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Peter Debaere (2018), "Water Markets from an Economic Point of View Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.