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NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Alexander Dyck, Nonito R. Bernardo Jr., John F. McGuire. The NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines (referred as “Napocor Delgado” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Negotiations.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines Case Study


In the summer of 1993, brownouts reached 10 hours a day in Metro Manila, the center of the Philippine economy. Solving the electricity crisis was central to recently elected President Fidel Ramos's plan to transform the Philippines from the "sick man of Asia" to the newest "Asian tiger." This case explores initial efforts to contract out with independent power producers for generation and, in 1996, proposals by NAPOCOR President Delgado to privatize completely the generation and distribution of power. NAPOCOR was the largest company in the country, measured by asset value. Asks the reader to help Delgado find a way between the demands of restructuring and privatization. Three issues remain to be resolved: How many firms should be created from the government-owned monopoly? How much of NAPOCOR's output should be tied to distributors in long-term contracts before privatization? and, Should distribution companies be allowed to own and operate generation plants?


Case Authors : Alexander Dyck, Nonito R. Bernardo Jr., John F. McGuire

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Negotiations




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005329) -10005329 - -
Year 1 3445660 -6559669 3445660 0.9434 3250623
Year 2 3973231 -2586438 7418891 0.89 3536161
Year 3 3950815 1364377 11369706 0.8396 3317180
Year 4 3248963 4613340 14618669 0.7921 2573483
TOTAL 14618669 12677448


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2672119

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Napocor Delgado have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Napocor Delgado shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Napocor Delgado often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Napocor Delgado needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005329) -10005329 - -
Year 1 3445660 -6559669 3445660 0.8696 2996226
Year 2 3973231 -2586438 7418891 0.7561 3004333
Year 3 3950815 1364377 11369706 0.6575 2597725
Year 4 3248963 4613340 14618669 0.5718 1857605
TOTAL 10455890


The Net NPV after 4 years is 450561

(10455890 - 10005329 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005329) -10005329 - -
Year 1 3445660 -6559669 3445660 0.8333 2871383
Year 2 3973231 -2586438 7418891 0.6944 2759188
Year 3 3950815 1364377 11369706 0.5787 2286351
Year 4 3248963 4613340 14618669 0.4823 1566822
TOTAL 9483745


The Net NPV after 4 years is -521584

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483745 - 10005329 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Napocor Delgado to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Napocor Delgado has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Napocor Delgado can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Napocor Delgado, then the stock price of the Napocor Delgado should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Napocor Delgado should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Alexander Dyck, Nonito R. Bernardo Jr., John F. McGuire (2018), "NAPOCOR Privatization: Power in the Philippines Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.