Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Pratima Bansal, Natalie Slawinski. The Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq (referred as “Talisman Talisman's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Ethics, Government, Risk management, Social responsibility, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq Case Study

In June 2008, the chief executive officer of Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman) and his senior executive team met with the company's board of directors. The purpose of this meeting was to debate Talisman's proposed entry into the oil-rich Kurdistan region of Iraq. This move was potentially very lucrative for Talisman but was fraught with risks. These risks were exacerbated by Talisman's previous foray into Sudan; during that expansion Talisman had been accused of complicity in human-rights abuses, stemming from industry-accepted royalties and fees it had paid to the government. This payment of fees was held as an example by public interest groups to allege that Talisman was indirectly funding the Sudanese civil war. Talisman's reputation had suffered to the point where the ire of investors and U.S. and Canadian governments was sufficient for Talisman to exit Sudan in 2003. There were many questions about the proposed move to Iraq, including the political situation, the views of the U.S. and Canadian government, and especially the US$220 million fee payable to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Should Talisman enter Iraq, and if so, could they avoid experiencing the same outcome as Sudan?

Case Authors : Pratima Bansal, Natalie Slawinski

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Ethics, Government, Risk management, Social responsibility, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019184)	-10019184	-	-
Year 1	3472146	-6547038	3472146	0.9434	3275609
Year 2	3967696	-2579342	7439842	0.89	3531235
Year 3	3938716	1359374	11378558	0.8396	3307022
Year 4	3244504	4603878	14623062	0.7921	2569951
TOTAL			14623062		12683818

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664634

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Talisman Talisman's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Talisman Talisman's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Talisman Talisman's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Talisman Talisman's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019184)	-10019184	-	-
Year 1	3472146	-6547038	3472146	0.8696	3019257
Year 2	3967696	-2579342	7439842	0.7561	3000148
Year 3	3938716	1359374	11378558	0.6575	2589770
Year 4	3244504	4603878	14623062	0.5718	1855056
TOTAL					10464231

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445047

(10464231 - 10019184 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019184)	-10019184	-	-
Year 1	3472146	-6547038	3472146	0.8333	2893455
Year 2	3967696	-2579342	7439842	0.6944	2755344
Year 3	3938716	1359374	11378558	0.5787	2279350
Year 4	3244504	4603878	14623062	0.4823	1564672
TOTAL					9492821

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526363

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492821 - 10019184 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Talisman Talisman's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Talisman Talisman's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Talisman Talisman's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Talisman Talisman's, then the stock price of the Talisman Talisman's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Talisman Talisman's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq

References & Further Readings

Pratima Bansal, Natalie Slawinski (2018), "Talisman Energy Inc.: The Decision to Enter Iraq Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.