Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Willis Emmons. The Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information (referred as “So2 Pollution” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Negotiations, Regulation, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information Case Study

Designed to teach students about the trade-offs faced by firms exploring alternative approaches to complying with pollution control regulations. The setting is the U.S. electric utility industry in 1993. In accordance with the provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act, coal-burning utilities must lower their emissions of SO2 (sulfur dioxide) significantly by 1995, and then reduce their emissions by an additional 50% by the year 2000. In this stylized negotiation each utility has the option of complying with the regulations through one of three methods: 1) by installing pollution control equipment ("scrubbers"); 2) by substituting high-sulfur coal; and/or 3) by purchasing tradeable SO2 allowances from other firms that overcomply with the emission control legislation. Not only must each utility reduce its emissions by a different amount, but the costs faced by each firm with respect to scrubbing and fuel switching differ as well. Also, assumptions relating to the state regulatory environment differ across negotiating groups. Negotiations take place in groups of four utilities, and separate scenarios are available for three distinct groups. (See Supplements.)

Case Authors : Willis Emmons

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Negotiations, Regulation, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024198)	-10024198	-	-
Year 1	3445336	-6578862	3445336	0.9434	3250317
Year 2	3971358	-2607504	7416694	0.89	3534494
Year 3	3944657	1337153	11361351	0.8396	3312010
Year 4	3238188	4575341	14599539	0.7921	2564948
TOTAL			14599539		12661770

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2637572

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. So2 Pollution shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of So2 Pollution have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at So2 Pollution often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at So2 Pollution needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024198)	-10024198	-	-
Year 1	3445336	-6578862	3445336	0.8696	2995944
Year 2	3971358	-2607504	7416694	0.7561	3002917
Year 3	3944657	1337153	11361351	0.6575	2593676
Year 4	3238188	4575341	14599539	0.5718	1851444
TOTAL					10443982

The Net NPV after 4 years is 419784

(10443982 - 10024198 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024198)	-10024198	-	-
Year 1	3445336	-6578862	3445336	0.8333	2871113
Year 2	3971358	-2607504	7416694	0.6944	2757888
Year 3	3944657	1337153	11361351	0.5787	2282788
Year 4	3238188	4575341	14599539	0.4823	1561626
TOTAL					9473415

The Net NPV after 4 years is -550783

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9473415 - 10024198 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of So2 Pollution to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of So2 Pollution has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at So2 Pollution can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at So2 Pollution, then the stock price of the So2 Pollution should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at So2 Pollution should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information

References & Further Readings

Willis Emmons (2018), "Negotiation Exercise on Tradeable Pollution Allowances: General Background Information Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.