Who Broke the Bank of England? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Who Broke the Bank of England? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Who Broke the Bank of England? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Niall Ferguson, Jonathan Schlefer. The Who Broke the Bank of England? (referred as “Erm Soros” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Decision making, Financial management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Who Broke the Bank of England? Case Study

In the summer of 1992, hedge fund manager George Soros was contemplating the possibility that the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) would break down. Designed to pave the way for a full-scale European Monetary Union, the ERM was a system of fixed exchange rates linking together twelve members of the European Union, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy. However, the impact of German reunification after 1989 had created significant strains within the system. Moreover, financial deregulation and the growth of cross-border flows of "hot" money increased the likelihood that a speculative attack on one or more ERM currencies might succeed. Soros had to decide which currencies to bet against. The Italian lira? The British pound? The French franc? Or all three? The result could determine the success or failure of the project for a single European currency.

Case Authors : Niall Ferguson, Jonathan Schlefer

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Decision making, Financial management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Who Broke the Bank of England? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018327)	-10018327	-	-
Year 1	3452895	-6565432	3452895	0.9434	3257448
Year 2	3975354	-2590078	7428249	0.89	3538051
Year 3	3967341	1377263	11395590	0.8396	3331056
Year 4	3247477	4624740	14643067	0.7921	2572306
TOTAL			14643067		12698861

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2680534

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Erm Soros have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Erm Soros shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Who Broke the Bank of England?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Erm Soros often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Erm Soros needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018327)	-10018327	-	-
Year 1	3452895	-6565432	3452895	0.8696	3002517
Year 2	3975354	-2590078	7428249	0.7561	3005939
Year 3	3967341	1377263	11395590	0.6575	2608591
Year 4	3247477	4624740	14643067	0.5718	1856756
TOTAL					10473803

The Net NPV after 4 years is 455476

(10473803 - 10018327 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10018327)	-10018327	-	-
Year 1	3452895	-6565432	3452895	0.8333	2877413
Year 2	3975354	-2590078	7428249	0.6944	2760663
Year 3	3967341	1377263	11395590	0.5787	2295915
Year 4	3247477	4624740	14643067	0.4823	1566106
TOTAL					9500096

The Net NPV after 4 years is -518231

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500096 - 10018327 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Erm Soros to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Erm Soros has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Erm Soros can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Erm Soros, then the stock price of the Erm Soros should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Erm Soros should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Who Broke the Bank of England?

References & Further Readings

Niall Ferguson, Jonathan Schlefer (2018), "Who Broke the Bank of England? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.