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Note on the Global Hotel Industry Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Note on the Global Hotel Industry case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Note on the Global Hotel Industry case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Gevork Papiryan. The Note on the Global Hotel Industry (referred as “Hotel Emerging” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Emerging markets, Globalization.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Note on the Global Hotel Industry Case Study


The hotel industry has experienced tremendous growth since the 1980s and has emerged as a global industry. During the expansion processess and rise of competition, multinational, multi-brand corporations, such as Hilton Hotels Corporation, were in the process of finding new markets and setting priorities. On the other hand in emerging markets, such as Russia, most of the national hotel industry had been formed under the pressure of foreign hotel chains. In addition to competing with foreign firms in their own markets, local Russian companines were also planning to enter international markets. In this environment where competition was strengthening within the global hotel industry, and new players were emerging, a number of questions and challenges existed: 1) How could firms effectively leverage their competencies and increase their competitiveness? 2) Would the multinational hotel corporations continue to expand their brand portfolios? 3) How could hotel chains maintain their integrity during the expansion on a global scale? 4) What strategies might apply to convince Western hotel companies to compete in emerging markets? 5) Which direction would further develop the hotel industries in emerging economies.


Case Authors : Gevork Papiryan

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Emerging markets, Globalization




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Note on the Global Hotel Industry Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022523) -10022523 - -
Year 1 3452726 -6569797 3452726 0.9434 3257289
Year 2 3960950 -2608847 7413676 0.89 3525231
Year 3 3961977 1353130 11375653 0.8396 3326552
Year 4 3238233 4591363 14613886 0.7921 2564984
TOTAL 14613886 12674056




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2651533

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hotel Emerging shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hotel Emerging have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Note on the Global Hotel Industry

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hotel Emerging often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hotel Emerging needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022523) -10022523 - -
Year 1 3452726 -6569797 3452726 0.8696 3002370
Year 2 3960950 -2608847 7413676 0.7561 2995047
Year 3 3961977 1353130 11375653 0.6575 2605064
Year 4 3238233 4591363 14613886 0.5718 1851470
TOTAL 10453952


The Net NPV after 4 years is 431429

(10453952 - 10022523 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022523) -10022523 - -
Year 1 3452726 -6569797 3452726 0.8333 2877272
Year 2 3960950 -2608847 7413676 0.6944 2750660
Year 3 3961977 1353130 11375653 0.5787 2292811
Year 4 3238233 4591363 14613886 0.4823 1561648
TOTAL 9482390


The Net NPV after 4 years is -540133

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9482390 - 10022523 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hotel Emerging to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hotel Emerging has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hotel Emerging can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hotel Emerging, then the stock price of the Hotel Emerging should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hotel Emerging should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Note on the Global Hotel Industry

References & Further Readings

Gevork Papiryan (2018), "Note on the Global Hotel Industry Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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