Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Tony S. Frost, Gerry Keim, David T.A. Wesley. The Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) (referred as “Mmt Manganese” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Health, Regulation, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) Case Study

When its main products, gasoline lead additives, were banned in most developed countries, a U.S. company introduced an environmentally friendly, octane-boosting gasoline additive--methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT). The product was approved for use in Canada, but not sanctioned for use in Europe or the United States, due to health concerns. In response to public concerns about environmental hazards, the Canadian government introduced legislation that would ban both the import and transport of manganese-based substances, including MMT. Faced with the possibility of losing both its current Canadian market and trade in other countries, the company considers a political strategy.

Case Authors : Tony S. Frost, Gerry Keim, David T.A. Wesley

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Health, Regulation, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019579)	-10019579	-	-
Year 1	3453133	-6566446	3453133	0.9434	3257673
Year 2	3973777	-2592669	7426910	0.89	3536647
Year 3	3942510	1349841	11369420	0.8396	3310207
Year 4	3248438	4598279	14617858	0.7921	2573067
TOTAL			14617858		12677595

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2658016

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mmt Manganese shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mmt Manganese have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mmt Manganese often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mmt Manganese needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019579)	-10019579	-	-
Year 1	3453133	-6566446	3453133	0.8696	3002724
Year 2	3973777	-2592669	7426910	0.7561	3004746
Year 3	3942510	1349841	11369420	0.6575	2592264
Year 4	3248438	4598279	14617858	0.5718	1857305
TOTAL					10457040

The Net NPV after 4 years is 437461

(10457040 - 10019579 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019579)	-10019579	-	-
Year 1	3453133	-6566446	3453133	0.8333	2877611
Year 2	3973777	-2592669	7426910	0.6944	2759567
Year 3	3942510	1349841	11369420	0.5787	2281545
Year 4	3248438	4598279	14617858	0.4823	1566569
TOTAL					9485293

The Net NPV after 4 years is -534286

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485293 - 10019579 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mmt Manganese to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mmt Manganese has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mmt Manganese can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mmt Manganese, then the stock price of the Mmt Manganese should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mmt Manganese should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A)

References & Further Readings

Tony S. Frost, Gerry Keim, David T.A. Wesley (2018), "Ethyl Corp. of Virginia: The MMT Battle in Canada (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.