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Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by John A. Mathews. The Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry (referred as “Taiwan Semiconductor” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Globalization, Research & development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry Case Study


A thriving semiconductor industry has been created in Taiwan over the course of the past two decades by the use of advanced organizational techniques of technology leverage and accelerated technology diffusion. By the mid-1990s, the industry had reached a level of output that placed it behind only the United States, Japan, and Korea. Almost all of Taiwan's semiconductor industry is located in the Hsinchu Science-Based Industry Park, which was created in emulation of California's Stanford Research Park, but with more direct government involvement. This article explores the extent to which this emergent Silicon Valley in Taiwan shares the "industrial ecology" that has powered innovation in California and examines the extent to which the Taiwan industry suffers from weaknesses attributed to its rapid creation through technology leverage.


Case Authors : John A. Mathews

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Globalization, Research & development




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10009152) -10009152 - -
Year 1 3471621 -6537531 3471621 0.9434 3275114
Year 2 3958061 -2579470 7429682 0.89 3522660
Year 3 3972056 1392586 11401738 0.8396 3335015
Year 4 3237022 4629608 14638760 0.7921 2564025
TOTAL 14638760 12696814




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2687662

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Taiwan Semiconductor shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Taiwan Semiconductor have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Taiwan Semiconductor often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Taiwan Semiconductor needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10009152) -10009152 - -
Year 1 3471621 -6537531 3471621 0.8696 3018801
Year 2 3958061 -2579470 7429682 0.7561 2992863
Year 3 3972056 1392586 11401738 0.6575 2611691
Year 4 3237022 4629608 14638760 0.5718 1850778
TOTAL 10474133


The Net NPV after 4 years is 464981

(10474133 - 10009152 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10009152) -10009152 - -
Year 1 3471621 -6537531 3471621 0.8333 2893018
Year 2 3958061 -2579470 7429682 0.6944 2748653
Year 3 3972056 1392586 11401738 0.5787 2298644
Year 4 3237022 4629608 14638760 0.4823 1561064
TOTAL 9501378


The Net NPV after 4 years is -507774

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9501378 - 10009152 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Taiwan Semiconductor to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Taiwan Semiconductor has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Taiwan Semiconductor can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Taiwan Semiconductor, then the stock price of the Taiwan Semiconductor should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Taiwan Semiconductor should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry

References & Further Readings

John A. Mathews (2018), "Silicon Valley of the East: Creating Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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