Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Matthias Hild. The Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History (referred as “Lufthansa Deutsche” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Policy, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History Case Study

This note describes the competitive practices of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, the largest player in the German airline market, in response to challenges to its quasi monopoly on domestic routes. Starting in 1988, European governments deregulated the European airline industry in preparation for a single European market. In April 1997, the final phase of this process gave private airlines owned by a majority of EU nationals the right to operate freely on any of the domestic routes within the member states of the European Economic Area. From that time on, Lufthansa faced a series of challenges by both private entrepreneurs and established airlines, including Deutsche BA, Go-fly, Eurowings, Germania, and Preussag/TUI.

Case Authors : Matthias Hild

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Policy, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10015732)	-10015732	-	-
Year 1	3452854	-6562878	3452854	0.9434	3257409
Year 2	3953864	-2609014	7406718	0.89	3518925
Year 3	3958040	1349026	11364758	0.8396	3323247
Year 4	3242205	4591231	14606963	0.7921	2568130
TOTAL			14606963		12667711

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2651979

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Lufthansa Deutsche have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Lufthansa Deutsche shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Lufthansa Deutsche often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Lufthansa Deutsche needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10015732)	-10015732	-	-
Year 1	3452854	-6562878	3452854	0.8696	3002482
Year 2	3953864	-2609014	7406718	0.7561	2989689
Year 3	3958040	1349026	11364758	0.6575	2602476
Year 4	3242205	4591231	14606963	0.5718	1853741
TOTAL					10448388

The Net NPV after 4 years is 432656

(10448388 - 10015732 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10015732)	-10015732	-	-
Year 1	3452854	-6562878	3452854	0.8333	2877378
Year 2	3953864	-2609014	7406718	0.6944	2745739
Year 3	3958040	1349026	11364758	0.5787	2290532
Year 4	3242205	4591231	14606963	0.4823	1563563
TOTAL					9477213

The Net NPV after 4 years is -538519

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9477213 - 10015732 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Lufthansa Deutsche to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Lufthansa Deutsche has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Lufthansa Deutsche can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Lufthansa Deutsche, then the stock price of the Lufthansa Deutsche should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Lufthansa Deutsche should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History

References & Further Readings

Matthias Hild (2018), "Deutsche Lufthansa AG: A Competitive History Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.