Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Danang Parikesit, Jose Gomez-Ibanez. The Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure (referred as “Yogyakarta Ppps” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Emerging markets, Joint ventures, Policy, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure Case Study

In January 2009, Herry Zudianto the Mayor of Yogyakarta was reflecting on the apparent failure of his first effort to involve the private sector in the financing and provision of municipal infrastructure. Seven years earlier the City had awarded a 30-year concession to a local private company to build and operate an intercity bus terminal. Earlier that month, the company had sent the Mayor a letter announcing its intention to return the concession on the grounds that the City had not lived up to its commitments. This case is designed to introduce Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to an audience that has limited prior exposure to them. The case brings out the various motives or goals for PPPs and the circumstances under which those goals are likely to be sensible and achievable. Case Number 1979.0

Case Authors : Danang Parikesit, Jose Gomez-Ibanez

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Emerging markets, Joint ventures, Policy, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012117)	-10012117	-	-
Year 1	3457589	-6554528	3457589	0.9434	3261876
Year 2	3957831	-2596697	7415420	0.89	3522456
Year 3	3952728	1356031	11368148	0.8396	3318787
Year 4	3248256	4604287	14616404	0.7921	2572923
TOTAL			14616404		12676042

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2663925

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Yogyakarta Ppps shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Yogyakarta Ppps have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Yogyakarta Ppps often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Yogyakarta Ppps needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012117)	-10012117	-	-
Year 1	3457589	-6554528	3457589	0.8696	3006599
Year 2	3957831	-2596697	7415420	0.7561	2992689
Year 3	3952728	1356031	11368148	0.6575	2598983
Year 4	3248256	4604287	14616404	0.5718	1857201
TOTAL					10455472

The Net NPV after 4 years is 443355

(10455472 - 10012117 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012117)	-10012117	-	-
Year 1	3457589	-6554528	3457589	0.8333	2881324
Year 2	3957831	-2596697	7415420	0.6944	2748494
Year 3	3952728	1356031	11368148	0.5787	2287458
Year 4	3248256	4604287	14616404	0.4823	1566481
TOTAL					9483758

The Net NPV after 4 years is -528359

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483758 - 10012117 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Yogyakarta Ppps to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Yogyakarta Ppps has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Yogyakarta Ppps can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Yogyakarta Ppps, then the stock price of the Yogyakarta Ppps should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Yogyakarta Ppps should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure

References & Further Readings

Danang Parikesit, Jose Gomez-Ibanez (2018), "Yogyakarta Bus Terminal: The Private Provision of Municipal Infrastructure Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.