Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jo Jakobsen. The Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century (referred as “Political Risk” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Global strategy, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century Case Study

Despite the fact that most developing countries now generally welcome multinational companies, political risk still represents a huge concern for international business. In fact, multinational companies today probably face a much broader array of risks than during the nationalization wave of the 1960s and 1970s. To substantiate this claim, a theoretical framework is presented herein which outlines the key causal relationships in the political risk landscape. It is explained why a discernible attitude change in the developing and emerging world does not necessarily equal a reduced overall level of political risk. To illustrate the framework and the complexity of the political risk phenomenon, a number of recent case examples are presented from the international bauxite and aluminum industry-an industry whose wide-ranging value chain, international focus, global significance, and natural exposure to risks make it very suitable for analysis. The conceptual discussion and the empirical examples presented in this article suggest that political risk is now surely a highly complex, multidimensional phenomenon. This trait poses major challenges for the global business community, particularly in terms of accurately assessing these risks.

Case Authors : Jo Jakobsen

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Financial management, Global strategy, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017621)	-10017621	-	-
Year 1	3452404	-6565217	3452404	0.9434	3256985
Year 2	3979629	-2585588	7432033	0.89	3541856
Year 3	3965256	1379668	11397289	0.8396	3329305
Year 4	3244994	4624662	14642283	0.7921	2570339
TOTAL			14642283		12698485

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2680864

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Political Risk shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Political Risk have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Political Risk often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Political Risk needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017621)	-10017621	-	-
Year 1	3452404	-6565217	3452404	0.8696	3002090
Year 2	3979629	-2585588	7432033	0.7561	3009171
Year 3	3965256	1379668	11397289	0.6575	2607220
Year 4	3244994	4624662	14642283	0.5718	1855336
TOTAL					10473818

The Net NPV after 4 years is 456197

(10473818 - 10017621 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017621)	-10017621	-	-
Year 1	3452404	-6565217	3452404	0.8333	2877003
Year 2	3979629	-2585588	7432033	0.6944	2763631
Year 3	3965256	1379668	11397289	0.5787	2294708
Year 4	3244994	4624662	14642283	0.4823	1564908
TOTAL					9500251

The Net NPV after 4 years is -517370

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500251 - 10017621 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Political Risk to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Political Risk has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Political Risk can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Political Risk, then the stock price of the Political Risk should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Political Risk should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century

References & Further Readings

Jo Jakobsen (2018), "Old Problems Remain, New Ones Crop up: Political Risk in the 21st century Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.