Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Paul Seaborn, Peter Scott, William Miller. The Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty (referred as “Colorado Uber” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Disruptive innovation, IT, Mobile, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty Case Study

This case study details the issues and challenges that faced ride-sharing company Uber following its arrival in the state of Colorado as a new alternative to traditional taxi and limousine services. It is written from the perspective of Will McCollum, general manager of Uber Denver, a recent MBA graduate who is given responsibility for all aspects of Uber's initial Colorado launch and ongoing operations. The case provides a unique example of the oft-seen process by which new entrant companies use technology and new business models to challenge incumbent firms and traditional industries. The highly regulated and very stable nature of local transportation markets and rapid speed of Uber's rise to prominence makes Uber's experience particularly noteworthy. Uber faces public legal battles with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission and other transportation companies within the area. After some early success in opposing regulatory restrictions, the decision facing McCollum and Uber is whether to continue to fight regulation in Colorado or instead proactively work with state politicians to develop a set of ongoing rules under which the industry will be required to operate. The case can be used to introduce or illustrate Porter's Five Forces, industry disruption and disruptive innovation, stakeholder analysis, the legislative and regulatory process, and corporate political strategy.

Case Authors : Paul Seaborn, Peter Scott, William Miller

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Disruptive innovation, IT, Mobile, Policy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024273)	-10024273	-	-
Year 1	3469902	-6554371	3469902	0.9434	3273492
Year 2	3976969	-2577402	7446871	0.89	3539488
Year 3	3964964	1387562	11411835	0.8396	3329060
Year 4	3250357	4637919	14662192	0.7921	2574587
TOTAL			14662192		12716628

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2692355

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Colorado Uber shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Colorado Uber have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Colorado Uber often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Colorado Uber needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024273)	-10024273	-	-
Year 1	3469902	-6554371	3469902	0.8696	3017306
Year 2	3976969	-2577402	7446871	0.7561	3007160
Year 3	3964964	1387562	11411835	0.6575	2607028
Year 4	3250357	4637919	14662192	0.5718	1858402
TOTAL					10489896

The Net NPV after 4 years is 465623

(10489896 - 10024273 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024273)	-10024273	-	-
Year 1	3469902	-6554371	3469902	0.8333	2891585
Year 2	3976969	-2577402	7446871	0.6944	2761784
Year 3	3964964	1387562	11411835	0.5787	2294539
Year 4	3250357	4637919	14662192	0.4823	1567495
TOTAL					9515403

The Net NPV after 4 years is -508870

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9515403 - 10024273 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Colorado Uber to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Colorado Uber has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Colorado Uber can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Colorado Uber, then the stock price of the Colorado Uber should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Colorado Uber should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty

References & Further Readings

Paul Seaborn, Peter Scott, William Miller (2018), "Uber in Colorado: Seeking Regulatory Certainty Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.