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NPV: Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? Net Present Value Case Analysis
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Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Francis Warnock, Peter Debaere. The Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? (referred as “Zone Rates” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial markets, International business.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? Case Study


A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates over the past two years an aberration that would soon be reversed, or was it part of the "new normal" that would persist for some time? Second, how would periphery long rates evolve relative to core rates? That is-the spread between long rates in the likes of Greece, Spain, and Ireland and those in Germany-how would they evolve over the next year? Was the dramatic divergence in euro zone long rates likely to persist, or would the coming year see a reconvergence? He knew many factors influenced long-term interest rates; he would have to use his entire toolkit to address this issue. The evidence was in no way clear-cut. Some factors pointed toward lower German rates, some toward higher, some toward a widening of euro zone spreads (even a dissolution of the euro zone as we know it?), and some toward reconvergence. To form an opinion on the likely paths of euro zone long rates, he would have to sort through mounds of information.


Case Authors : Francis Warnock, Peter Debaere

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Financial markets, International business




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10029725) -10029725 - -
Year 1 3460386 -6569339 3460386 0.9434 3264515
Year 2 3965777 -2603562 7426163 0.89 3529527
Year 3 3967633 1364071 11393796 0.8396 3331301
Year 4 3243611 4607682 14637407 0.7921 2569244
TOTAL 14637407 12694587


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664862

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Zone Rates shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Zone Rates have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Zone Rates often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Zone Rates needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10029725) -10029725 - -
Year 1 3460386 -6569339 3460386 0.8696 3009031
Year 2 3965777 -2603562 7426163 0.7561 2998697
Year 3 3967633 1364071 11393796 0.6575 2608783
Year 4 3243611 4607682 14637407 0.5718 1854545
TOTAL 10471057


The Net NPV after 4 years is 441332

(10471057 - 10029725 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10029725) -10029725 - -
Year 1 3460386 -6569339 3460386 0.8333 2883655
Year 2 3965777 -2603562 7426163 0.6944 2754012
Year 3 3967633 1364071 11393796 0.5787 2296084
Year 4 3243611 4607682 14637407 0.4823 1564241
TOTAL 9497992


The Net NPV after 4 years is -531733

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9497992 - 10029725 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Zone Rates to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Zone Rates has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Zone Rates can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Zone Rates, then the stock price of the Zone Rates should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Zone Rates should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Francis Warnock, Peter Debaere (2018), "Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.