The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Yiorgos Allayannis, Adam Risell. The The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis (referred as “Sovereign Debt” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial markets.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis Case Study

Jason Sterling sat on his hedge fund's Stamford, Connecticut, trading floor on January 28, 2011, scouring the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg websites for any news coming out of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. He knew that the emerging sovereign debt crisis in Europe would be a primary topic of discussion among the world leaders and bankers who had convened at the summit, and he was hoping to find some new information that he could trade on before the close of trading for the week. Sterling's fund traded primarily in sovereign debt, and he needed to figure out if European leaders would be able to come up with a viable solution to the crisis or whether the debt crisis would lead to the default of several European nations. At the forefront of the crisis was Greece, which faced ballooning deficits, rising interest payments, and the prospect of having to default on or restructure its outstanding debt. Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain were the other euro zone countries that faced growing fiscal problems and were the focus of sovereign debt investors. Sterling knew that if a solution was not found in the coming weeks, the sovereign debt markets could be thrown into turmoil.

Case Authors : Yiorgos Allayannis, Adam Risell

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial markets

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020776)	-10020776	-	-
Year 1	3469982	-6550794	3469982	0.9434	3273568
Year 2	3961450	-2589344	7431432	0.89	3525676
Year 3	3951252	1361908	11382684	0.8396	3317547
Year 4	3240659	4602567	14623343	0.7921	2566905
TOTAL			14623343		12683697

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2662921

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Sovereign Debt shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Sovereign Debt have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Sovereign Debt often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Sovereign Debt needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020776)	-10020776	-	-
Year 1	3469982	-6550794	3469982	0.8696	3017376
Year 2	3961450	-2589344	7431432	0.7561	2995425
Year 3	3951252	1361908	11382684	0.6575	2598012
Year 4	3240659	4602567	14623343	0.5718	1852857
TOTAL					10463671

The Net NPV after 4 years is 442895

(10463671 - 10020776 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020776)	-10020776	-	-
Year 1	3469982	-6550794	3469982	0.8333	2891652
Year 2	3961450	-2589344	7431432	0.6944	2751007
Year 3	3951252	1361908	11382684	0.5787	2286604
Year 4	3240659	4602567	14623343	0.4823	1562818
TOTAL					9492081

The Net NPV after 4 years is -528695

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492081 - 10020776 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Sovereign Debt to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Sovereign Debt has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Sovereign Debt can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Sovereign Debt, then the stock price of the Sovereign Debt should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Sovereign Debt should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis

References & Further Readings

Yiorgos Allayannis, Adam Risell (2018), "The Euro Zone and the Sovereign Debt Crisis Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.