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Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Quinton Mayne, Pamela Varley. The Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project (referred as “Stuttgart Project” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project Case Study


In February 2010, Germany's national railway broke ground on a project that had been under negotiation for more than 20 years-the Stuttgart segment of the European Magistrale, a 930-mile cross-Europe high-speed rail line that would one day extend from Paris through Munich and Vienna to Budapest and Bratislava. At long last, the German national railway, the state of Baden-WA¼rttemberg, and the city of Stuttgart had come to agreement on the routing and station design of the megaproject. Yet within the year, the project would spark the largest citizen demonstrations Germany had seen since the reunification of the country. The Stuttgart 21 opponents were diverse, and so were their concerns, but nearly all were united by one overriding contention: that political elites had conceived the plan without public input and had later refused to take citizen objections seriously. The case provides basic background and context for this controversy, then describes four kinds of public participation that took place in the course of developing the project: (1) a city-sponsored open-participation process in 1997 allowing citizens to weigh in on the neighborhood re-development portions of the project; (2) a petition drive by opponents to hold a city referendum on the project, later followed by mass demonstrations; (3) a state-sponsored mediation process between supporters and opponents of the project; and (4) a state election followed by a state referendum on the project.


Case Authors : Quinton Mayne, Pamela Varley

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Policy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027288) -10027288 - -
Year 1 3456534 -6570754 3456534 0.9434 3260881
Year 2 3968687 -2602067 7425221 0.89 3532117
Year 3 3936652 1334585 11361873 0.8396 3305289
Year 4 3231347 4565932 14593220 0.7921 2559529
TOTAL 14593220 12657817


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2630529

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Stuttgart Project have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Stuttgart Project shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Stuttgart Project often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Stuttgart Project needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027288) -10027288 - -
Year 1 3456534 -6570754 3456534 0.8696 3005682
Year 2 3968687 -2602067 7425221 0.7561 3000898
Year 3 3936652 1334585 11361873 0.6575 2588413
Year 4 3231347 4565932 14593220 0.5718 1847533
TOTAL 10442525


The Net NPV after 4 years is 415237

(10442525 - 10027288 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027288) -10027288 - -
Year 1 3456534 -6570754 3456534 0.8333 2880445
Year 2 3968687 -2602067 7425221 0.6944 2756033
Year 3 3936652 1334585 11361873 0.5787 2278155
Year 4 3231347 4565932 14593220 0.4823 1558327
TOTAL 9472960


The Net NPV after 4 years is -554328

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472960 - 10027288 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Stuttgart Project to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Stuttgart Project has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Stuttgart Project can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Stuttgart Project, then the stock price of the Stuttgart Project should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Stuttgart Project should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Quinton Mayne, Pamela Varley (2018), "Megaprojects & the Role of the Public: Germany's Embattled 'Stuttgart 21' Rail Project Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.