Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Brian Tomlin. The Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks (referred as “Flexible Flexibility” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Globalization, Manufacturing, Networking, Risk management, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks Case Study

Globalization has led to the creation of hyper-efficient supply chains that work well in a predictable world. However, with globalization comes a world full of uncertainties, and these efficient supply chains often cannot cope with unpredictable fluctuations in demand and supply. These supply-demand imbalances are a major business risk in a vast array of industries--including aerospace and defense, automobiles, chemicals, engineered products, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors-- because capacity is very expensive. Mix flexibility--whereby a plant can produce more than one kind of product--is an attractive antidote to this risk. In this article, we discuss better and worse ways to embrace mix flexibility. To begin, senior executives need to answer two key questions: How do we create flexible plants? And how do we go from flexible plants to a cost-effective flexible network? Successful companies will not blindly apply the same flexibility tactic throughout their business: they will tailor the Four Ps--product design, process design, production technology, and people--to fit the different characteristics of different tiers in their production chains. Successful companies will not sacrifice cost at the altar of flexibility: they will create cost effective flexible networks by strategically configuring partially flexible networks in a way that delivers almost all the benefits of totally flexible networks.

Case Authors : Brian Tomlin

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Globalization, Manufacturing, Networking, Risk management, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002924)	-10002924	-	-
Year 1	3446757	-6556167	3446757	0.9434	3251658
Year 2	3954573	-2601594	7401330	0.89	3519556
Year 3	3958066	1356472	11359396	0.8396	3323269
Year 4	3229771	4586243	14589167	0.7921	2558281
TOTAL			14589167		12652763

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2649839

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Flexible Flexibility have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Flexible Flexibility shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Flexible Flexibility often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Flexible Flexibility needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002924)	-10002924	-	-
Year 1	3446757	-6556167	3446757	0.8696	2997180
Year 2	3954573	-2601594	7401330	0.7561	2990225
Year 3	3958066	1356472	11359396	0.6575	2602493
Year 4	3229771	4586243	14589167	0.5718	1846632
TOTAL					10436530

The Net NPV after 4 years is 433606

(10436530 - 10002924 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002924)	-10002924	-	-
Year 1	3446757	-6556167	3446757	0.8333	2872298
Year 2	3954573	-2601594	7401330	0.6944	2746231
Year 3	3958066	1356472	11359396	0.5787	2290547
Year 4	3229771	4586243	14589167	0.4823	1557567
TOTAL					9466643

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536281

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9466643 - 10002924 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Flexible Flexibility to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Flexible Flexibility has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Flexible Flexibility can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Flexible Flexibility, then the stock price of the Flexible Flexibility should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Flexible Flexibility should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks

References & Further Readings

Brian Tomlin (2018), "Managing Supply-Demand Risk In Global Production: Creating Cost-Effective Flexible Networks Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.