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Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Tarun Khanna, Danielle Melito. The Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update (referred as “People's Republic” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Government, Marketing, Mergers & acquisitions, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update Case Study


Provides an update to Microsoft in the People's Republic of China--1993.


Case Authors : Tarun Khanna, Danielle Melito

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Government, Marketing, Mergers & acquisitions, Technology




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022651) -10022651 - -
Year 1 3463349 -6559302 3463349 0.9434 3267310
Year 2 3965150 -2594152 7428499 0.89 3528969
Year 3 3937949 1343797 11366448 0.8396 3306378
Year 4 3233962 4577759 14600410 0.7921 2561601
TOTAL 14600410 12664258


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2641607

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. People's Republic shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of People's Republic have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at People's Republic often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at People's Republic needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022651) -10022651 - -
Year 1 3463349 -6559302 3463349 0.8696 3011608
Year 2 3965150 -2594152 7428499 0.7561 2998223
Year 3 3937949 1343797 11366448 0.6575 2589265
Year 4 3233962 4577759 14600410 0.5718 1849028
TOTAL 10448125


The Net NPV after 4 years is 425474

(10448125 - 10022651 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022651) -10022651 - -
Year 1 3463349 -6559302 3463349 0.8333 2886124
Year 2 3965150 -2594152 7428499 0.6944 2753576
Year 3 3937949 1343797 11366448 0.5787 2278906
Year 4 3233962 4577759 14600410 0.4823 1559588
TOTAL 9478194


The Net NPV after 4 years is -544457

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478194 - 10022651 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of People's Republic to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of People's Republic has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at People's Republic can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at People's Republic, then the stock price of the People's Republic should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at People's Republic should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Tarun Khanna, Danielle Melito (2018), "Microsoft in the People's Republic of China: 1998 Update Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.