Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Alexander Dyck, Mehmet Beceren. The Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? (referred as “Bills Aviation” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? Case Study

This case is available in only hard copy format (HBP does not have digital distribution rights to the content). As a result, a digital Educator Copy of the case is not available through this web site.Was the public or the private sector best positioned to provide security and baggage screening services? The suicide attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the plane crash outside Pittsburgh, marked September 11, 2001, as the date of the most severe terrorist attack and the most dreadful aviation incident in U.S. history, and initiated a search for steps to prevent such a calamity in the future. The U.S. House and the U.S. Senate passed two competing bills to address aviation security. The principal difference between the bills was whether the screening function could continue to be provided by the private sector or would be federalized--in effect, a reverse privatization of the service. Members of Congress had to consider questions of links between ownership, cost, and quality, and, most importantly, support one of the two bills. Can be used to introduce issues of market and government failure and to develop a contracting framework where key issues are the availability of information, the ability to provide incentives, the importance of incentives and innovation, and the importance of attributes that can't be contracted (such as some dimensions of product quality).

Case Authors : Alexander Dyck, Mehmet Beceren

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029553)	-10029553	-	-
Year 1	3448899	-6580654	3448899	0.9434	3253678
Year 2	3953049	-2627605	7401948	0.89	3518200
Year 3	3970931	1343326	11372879	0.8396	3334070
Year 4	3232692	4576018	14605571	0.7921	2560595
TOTAL			14605571		12666543

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2636990

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Bills Aviation shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Bills Aviation have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Bills Aviation often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Bills Aviation needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029553)	-10029553	-	-
Year 1	3448899	-6580654	3448899	0.8696	2999043
Year 2	3953049	-2627605	7401948	0.7561	2989073
Year 3	3970931	1343326	11372879	0.6575	2610952
Year 4	3232692	4576018	14605571	0.5718	1848302
TOTAL					10447369

The Net NPV after 4 years is 417816

(10447369 - 10029553 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029553)	-10029553	-	-
Year 1	3448899	-6580654	3448899	0.8333	2874083
Year 2	3953049	-2627605	7401948	0.6944	2745173
Year 3	3970931	1343326	11372879	0.5787	2297992
Year 4	3232692	4576018	14605571	0.4823	1558976
TOTAL					9476224

The Net NPV after 4 years is -553329

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476224 - 10029553 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Bills Aviation to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Bills Aviation has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Bills Aviation can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Bills Aviation, then the stock price of the Bills Aviation should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Bills Aviation should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private?

References & Further Readings

Alexander Dyck, Mehmet Beceren (2018), "Aviation Security After September 11th: Public or Private? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.