Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ping Lin, Wen Zhou, Penelope Chan. The Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands (referred as “Coca Huiyuan” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Growth strategy, Mergers & acquisitions, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands Case Study

The Coca-Cola Company ("Coca-Cola") announced a plan in September 2008 to acquire China's biggest domestic juice manufacturer, China Huiyuan Juice Group Limited ("Huiyuan"). This acquisition will boost the market share of Coca-Cola from 12.7% to 20.2% in the country's juice market that year. Because Huiyuan-branded fruit juice is one of China's home-grown prominent brands, this news has triggered a public outcry rooted in patriotic nationalism against Coca-Cola's acquisition. Local juice manufacturers have also protested, claiming that Coca-Cola's enhanced market position would drive them out of business. China's antitrust officials plan to conduct a public hearing in late December 2008. Coca-Cola's senior executives are mulling over the best strategies to convince the authorities that this acquisition benefits the consumers and the society at large. Factors of considerations may include the rationale of regulatory control of M&A, synergies of the merging companies, and the potential effects of merging on competition, consumer interests and industry development. (Note: Case B covers the ruling by China's antitrust authorities on Coca-Cola's case and its implications for foreign companies trying to expand business in the country through acquisition of top domestic brands.)

Case Authors : Ping Lin, Wen Zhou, Penelope Chan

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Growth strategy, Mergers & acquisitions, Policy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024657)	-10024657	-	-
Year 1	3460137	-6564520	3460137	0.9434	3264280
Year 2	3960196	-2604324	7420333	0.89	3524560
Year 3	3940609	1336285	11360942	0.8396	3308611
Year 4	3234554	4570839	14595496	0.7921	2562070
TOTAL			14595496		12659522

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2634865

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Coca Huiyuan shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Coca Huiyuan have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Coca Huiyuan often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Coca Huiyuan needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024657)	-10024657	-	-
Year 1	3460137	-6564520	3460137	0.8696	3008815
Year 2	3960196	-2604324	7420333	0.7561	2994477
Year 3	3940609	1336285	11360942	0.6575	2591014
Year 4	3234554	4570839	14595496	0.5718	1849367
TOTAL					10443673

The Net NPV after 4 years is 419016

(10443673 - 10024657 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024657)	-10024657	-	-
Year 1	3460137	-6564520	3460137	0.8333	2883448
Year 2	3960196	-2604324	7420333	0.6944	2750136
Year 3	3940609	1336285	11360942	0.5787	2280445
Year 4	3234554	4570839	14595496	0.4823	1559874
TOTAL					9473902

The Net NPV after 4 years is -550755

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9473902 - 10024657 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Coca Huiyuan to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Coca Huiyuan has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Coca Huiyuan can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Coca Huiyuan, then the stock price of the Coca Huiyuan should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Coca Huiyuan should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands

References & Further Readings

Ping Lin, Wen Zhou, Penelope Chan (2018), "Coca-Cola and Huiyuan (B): Antitrust Barriers to Buying Top Chinese Brands Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.