Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Suraj Srinivasan, Aldo Sesia, Amy Kaser. The Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off (referred as “Brink's Security” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off Case Study

The case studies the decision of the security services corporation Brink's Company to spin-off its home security division from the rest of the company. The decision followed intense pressure on the company by three activist hedge funds who felt that Brink's was chronically undervalued and the individual businesses were worth more than the combined company. The company resisted the decision for over a year before agreeing to the break up. The case follows the argument made by the company and each of the investors. It also describes the actions by the company to convince its shareholders of the merits of keeping the company together, as well as the actions the activist investors took to get the attention of management, the board, and other investors. The businesses, secure transportation and home security monitoring, are described from both a business strategy and a financial perspective so that the potential value of different value enhancing options can be analyzed.

Case Authors : Suraj Srinivasan, Aldo Sesia, Amy Kaser

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016984)	-10016984	-	-
Year 1	3469752	-6547232	3469752	0.9434	3273351
Year 2	3959708	-2587524	7429460	0.89	3524126
Year 3	3960011	1372487	11389471	0.8396	3324902
Year 4	3237524	4610011	14626995	0.7921	2564422
TOTAL			14626995		12686801

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2669817

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Brink's Security have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Brink's Security shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Brink's Security often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Brink's Security needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016984)	-10016984	-	-
Year 1	3469752	-6547232	3469752	0.8696	3017176
Year 2	3959708	-2587524	7429460	0.7561	2994108
Year 3	3960011	1372487	11389471	0.6575	2603772
Year 4	3237524	4610011	14626995	0.5718	1851065
TOTAL					10466120

The Net NPV after 4 years is 449136

(10466120 - 10016984 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016984)	-10016984	-	-
Year 1	3469752	-6547232	3469752	0.8333	2891460
Year 2	3959708	-2587524	7429460	0.6944	2749797
Year 3	3960011	1372487	11389471	0.5787	2291673
Year 4	3237524	4610011	14626995	0.4823	1561306
TOTAL					9494236

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522748

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494236 - 10016984 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Brink's Security to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Brink's Security has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Brink's Security can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Brink's Security, then the stock price of the Brink's Security should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Brink's Security should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off

References & Further Readings

Suraj Srinivasan, Aldo Sesia, Amy Kaser (2018), "Brink's Company: Activists push for a spin-off Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.